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Fossils in focus
Gently swaying trees made for a strange backdrop as West Kelowna’s fire chief took the podium in New York during the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit. “It was like fighting 100 years of fire all in one night,” relayed Jason Brolund in dress uniform and medals, silhouetted in front of a high-definition screen evoking the Garden of Eden.
“Some people made it to the lake, their only option to survive in the water.” The fire chief went on to describe truly heroic efforts by firefighters and the astonishing ferocity of the firestorm. “Climate change became very real for West Kelowna on August 16th.”
Brolund was invited to the UN by Justin Trudeau and Steven Guilbeault along with Halifax assistant fire chief Sherry Dean, who also told her stories first-hand. “First responders on the front lines understand that ambitious collective action to tackle climate change is now a matter of survival,” Trudeau said at the event.
And I think it’s worth highlighting that scene in New York, not only because the firefighters deserve the attention but also because our government organized something we should encourage them to do a lot more often, more systematically, and across Canada (maybe with less incongruous stagecraft).
Climate change is coming home for more and more Canadians but it’s still a pretty abstract thing for most of us, most of the time. And the public has even less of a grasp on the scope and specifics of the actions needed. While climate advocates rightly list the many failures and inadequacies of the feds, it is also true they are operating against nearly blanket obstructionism from the premiers and a Conservative Opposition ardently opposed to any restrictions on fossil fuels with a leader delivering increasingly clever and seductive messaging on climate action.
Perhaps most importantly, voters remain unclear about the real-world steps needed and the rationale behind government policies. Six in 10 Canadians either think we can expand fossil fuels and reach net zero, or aren’t sure. Heat pumps remain mysterious. Electrification and batteries, dubious. About half of Canadians aren’t sure whether solar panels emit more greenhouse gases than they end up saving.
We’ve got very vocal premiers dissing clean energy, rampant online misinformation conflating freedom with fossil fuels and far-too-few counterbalancing efforts to build a public mandate for action.
At the UN event, Fire Chief Brolund tallied at least $20 million spent in 36 hours on just that one fire this summer and estimated triple that figure in insurance losses. “What could we have accomplished if we used that same amount of money proactively?” he asked.
“We’re spending the money on the wrong end of the problem.”
We are, tragically, far too advanced in the climate crisis to avoid huge sums responding to crises and adapting to impacts. But that only makes it all the more urgent to focus on the right end of the problem.
And fossil fuels got a whole new level of focus at the UN Climate Ambition Summit. For decades, the fossil fuel industry has succeeded at keeping its products off the agenda. The Framework Convention on Tobacco Control has its target right there in the title. The Montreal ozone treaty’s formal title is awkward but unambiguous — the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The Paris Agreement, by contrast, never mentions oil, gas, coal or the f-words even once.
As you probably know, the week kicked off with a global “March to End Fossil Fuels.” Rallying in New York, an estimated 75,000 people heard speakers like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez underline the new, tighter message, “We are all here for one reason: to end fossil fuels around the planet.”
When world leaders gathered for the annual United Nations General Assembly and the Climate Ambition Summit, many of the protesters headed to the financial district. Nearly 150 were arrested blockading the Federal Reserve. Others camped outside of Bank of America protesting its $280 billion in finance to fossil fuels since the Paris Agreement.
Inside the UN, diplomats and politicians were more demure but increasingly focused on the fossil fuel industry. Secretary General António Guterres declared, “We must make up time lost to foot-dragging, arm-twisting and the naked greed of entrenched interests raking in billions from fossil fuels.”
Only countries deemed to have new ambition on climate were asked to attend the secretary general’s Climate Ambition Summit. Among the big fossil fuel producing nations, only Canada managed to wangle an invite.
Trudeau got the diplomat’s version of a grilling before his turn to speak. UN Under-Secretary-General Melissa Fleming introduced Canada as “one of the largest expanders of fossil fuels last year.”
She asked the PM to explain whether Canada is aligning with the secretary-general’s Acceleration Agenda, which pointedly calls on rich countries to end all licensing and funding of new coal, oil and gas and to end expansion of existing oil and gas reserves. (Wealthy countries are also asked to hit net zero by 2040, phase out coal power by 2030, end fossil fuel subsidies, set ambitious renewable energy targets, and implement just energy transitions.)
As the summit proceeded, an unprecedented number of political leaders echoed the call from the streets. California Gov. Gavin Newsom was crystal clear: “This climate crisis is a fossil fuel crisis,” he said. “It’s the burning of oil, it’s the burning of gas, it’s the burning of coal and we need to call that out.”
Newsom had just launched a lawsuit against five big oil companies and the American Petroleum Institute. The state claims the companies deceived the public, caused tens of billions of dollars in damage and wants compensation. “These companies knew about the catastrophic consequences of fossil fuels,” Newsom said. “They covered it up. Suppressed scientific data. Spent millions to cast doubts on climate science. Time for them to pay.”
The president of Chile was similarly blunt: “The climate crisis is a fossil fuel crisis, so we have to leave fossil fuels behind. And we also have to react to the greenwashing by major businesses.”
Spain’s prime minister called for “more efforts to eliminate fossil fuels.” While Germany looked forward to the upcoming COP28: “In Dubai, it will take the resolve of all of us to phase out fossil fuels.”
Colombia’s intervention really stood out because the country is heavily dependent on fossil fuels — 60 per cent of the country’s exports, according to President Gustavo Petro. Nevertheless, he said: “The real goal that all countries should have is aiming for zero in terms of production and supply of coal, gas and oil. If we keep as we are on our current track, it will be suicide.”
In August, Colombia announced it was joining the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance of countries committed to phase out oil and gas production.
It was so unusual to hear so many leaders speak so clearly that it’s worth rounding up a few more highlights.
Tuvalu’s prime minister called for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to supplement the Paris Agreement and declared: “There is no greater threat than fossil fuels.The longer we remain addicted to fossil fuels, the longer we commit ourselves to mutual decline.”
The Marshall Islands publicly joined the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance. President David Kabua said the country was “lending our strength to those taking the courageous decision to leave fossil fuels in the ground.”
He told the assembled nations: “We call for a fossil fuel phaseout and demand that abatement technology not be used to greenlight continued expansion. Fossil fuels are at the root of this crisis.”
Palau called for commitments on no new oil, coal and gas. “We urge all major emitters to develop fossil fuel phaseout plans.”
The momentum to build an international structure to tackle fossil fuels continued beyond the official speechifying. Nine Peruvian Indigenous nations called for a treaty on fossil fuels. And WWF, the world’s largest conservation organization, gave its panda seal of endorsement.
For those discouraged by decades of official obfuscation about the biggest driver of climate change, this week’s rhetoric was startling in its clarity. Countries big and small, rich and poor are dropping the diplomatic euphemisms and training their sights on target.
“The urgent actions required remain elusive,” said Harjeet Singh, head of political strategy for Climate Action Network International and engagement director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.
“But at the Climate Ambition Summit, the world heard an unequivocal message: We are in the midst of a climate emergency, and fossil fuels are its chief culprit.”
Doug Ford is ‘very, very sorry’
Facing massive public backlash, Ontario Premier Doug Ford completely abandoned plans to open protected Greenbelt lands for housing development in southern Ontario. “It was a mistake to open the Greenbelt … and we won’t make any changes to the Greenbelt in the future.
"I made a promise to you that I wouldn't touch the Greenbelt. I broke that promise and for that, I’m very, very sorry,"
Victory on the Greenbelt! Premier Ford reverses Greenbelt land removals thanks to 50k Ontarians who made their voices heard! But it's just step 1. From Highway 413 to 'Pay-to-slay' rules, the fight continues — let's keep fighting for Ontario's environment! #onpoli pic.twitter.com/0CDdjAFBUq
— EnvironmentalDefence (@envirodefence) September 21, 2023
Danielle Smith welcomes Saudi prince
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith did a stunning U-turn of her own, warmly welcoming Saudi Arabia’s energy minister to Calgary. “So much for ethical oil,” says Max Fawcett.
“This alliance between Smith and the Kingdom of Saud isn’t about the past, though. It’s all about a shared vision of the future that revolves around continuous growth in demand for oil and gas.
Ontario city votes no on gas plant expansion
Thorold city council voted against expanding a gas power plant in the community. The proposed expansion was part of the Doug Ford government’s plan to boost Ontario’s electricity system with new gas plants.
City Coun. Anthony Longo said: “We are faced with a decision that spans the financial interests of the proponents and the broader environmental and health concerns of both our province and, more specifically, the people of Thorold. In this matter, I stand firmly on the side of environmental responsibility and the well-being of our community.
Gassing the councillors
Local governments in B.C. are reeling from a provincewide drought and forest fires but when municipal leaders gathered this week, they were bombarded by fossil fuel sponsorship.
“In recent years, Fortis has pushed back hard as municipalities consider eliminating natural gas hookups in new buildings,” reports Rochelle Baker. Fortis, CAPP (the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers), Coastal GasLink and Trans Mountain were all over the Union of BC Municipalities annual convention.
Earlier this month, Nanaimo voted to phase out gas for new homes. The Alberta “war room” — now formally known as the Canadian Energy Centre and funded by the Alberta government — has launched an astroturf campaign to pressure councillors there to reverse the decision.
“It’s a strong lobby, but to be totally honest, there's much stronger optimism and support in the community for honest, real, and necessary climate action,” said Nanaimo Coun. Ben Geselbracht.
Methane much worse than reported to UN
The fossil lobby wouldn’t have been trumpeting the newest satellite data as it pressures and woos municipal leaders.
The satellites found emissions of methane from oil and gas operations are much higher than reported to the UN — the global average is 30 per cent higher; Canada and the U.S.’s emissions are about 60 per cent higher than what gets tallied and officially reported.
Heat pumps a win for the wallet
“Heat pumps offer a lower-cost way to heat and cool most homes in Canada — beating out gas and air conditioning dollar-for-dollar,” announced Rick Smith, president of the Canadian Climate Institute.
The institute crunched the numbers for households in five Canadian cities: Vancouver, Edmonton, Toronto, Montreal and Halifax. And a new online calculator allows anyone to find out how much they’d save by transitioning from gas heat and air conditioning to a heat pump. Even without energy-efficiency upgrades, a heat pump comes out cheaper for all cities except Edmonton.
“Canada has an incredible opportunity to help people save on energy bills, reduce climate pollution and provide life-saving cooling in extreme heat like we saw this summer,” says Smith.
Heat pumps got a major boost in the U.S. this week. A group of 25 state governors and the Biden administration announced plans to quadruple the number of heat pumps in U.S. homes by 2030. A boost from 4.7 million currently to 20 million.
Europe increases ambition
Lawmakers in the European Union gave final assent to a big increase in legally binding targets for renewable energy, requiring 42.5 per cent to be renewable by 2030 — almost double the current energy mix. In addition to fast tracking wind and solar power, the directive addresses buildings and the transportation sector.
Germany finally finangled its “boiler ban” into law after months of coalition infighting over the plan to ban new fossil fuel heating. The original proposal was to ban boilers after 2024, a deadline that’s been pushed back to 2028. “Germany wants to be climate neutral by 2045 by which time, all of the country’s 20 million heaters must run on renewables,” reports Euractiv.
In the U.K., the governing Conservatives moved in the opposite direction. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced he would delay phase-outs for gas heating and fossil-fuelled cars and remove requirements for building efficiency upgrades. The move was met with outrage though it’s worth noting the delay would put the U.K. on the same timeline as Canada’s proposed (not-yet enacted) plan for zero-emission vehicles (mandates on buildings or clean heating remain mostly the dreams of policy wonks.)
Brazil decreases deforestation
Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon dropped 66 per cent in August compared to the same month last year. The news is particularly notable because August is historically one of the highest months for deforestation.
Brazil’s environment minister credits January’s change in government: "These results show the determination of the Lula administration to break the cycle of abandonment and regression seen under the previous government," Marina Silva said.
Solar shines in Australia
Almost one-third of Australian homes are now topped with solar panels. The solar arrays are increasingly paired with residential-sized batteries, business-sized ones and large grid-scale batteries known as “virtual power plants.” And the rollout is upending conventional wisdom about electricity grids.
The state of South Australia “already has a world-leading share of more than 70 per cent renewables in its grid, averaged over the last 12 months, and regularly reaches more than 100 per cent renewables thanks to its growing capacity of large-scale wind and solar, and rooftop solar.” Renew Economy reports the state is now starting to see periods where rooftop solar eats up all operational demand.
Passing the mic
In last week’s newsletter, I offered a truckload of encouragement. Prof. William Rees emailed a polite, but sweeping, corrective.
“I appreciate your ongoing efforts to raise climate change higher in the national and political consciousness. However, will you please consider the possibility that, while climate change (global heating) is a major problem, it is only one co-symptom of a larger meta-problem: ecological overshoot.”
Long before notions like “carbon footprint” gained public currency, Rees developed the concept of our “ecological footprint.” Most famously in the 1996 book Our Ecological Footprint: Reducing Human Impact on the Earth, which he wrote with Mathis Wackernagel.
“No major co-symptom of overshoot can be addressed effectively in isolation of the others,” Rees emailed. “This means that society's narrow, reductionist, simplistic focus on climate is a distraction that helps to prevent progress on the real existential threat.”
You can find Rees’ most recent writings collected here. And if you prefer audio, you could listen to his conversation with Nate Hagens.
Planetary boundaries
We’ve already overshot six of the nine “planetary boundaries” for a stable planet, according to the first comprehensive global “health check.”
You may have heard of Johan Rockström, named one of Time magazine’s 100 Most Influential People of 2023. He heads the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, which conducted the global analysis of planetary boundaries.
We finally have a scientific health check for the entire planet! 6 of 9 planetary boundaries currently transgressed. This does not mean irreversible collapse, but we are losing resilience. We are putting the stability of the entire earth system at risk. https://t.co/8SI22ZQand
— Johan Rockström (@jrockstrom) September 14, 2023
The researchers’ findings suggest “Earth is now well outside of the safe operating space for humanity.”
The impacts from exceeding that safe operating space are all around us. At the end of the Southern Hemisphere winter, scientists describe sea ice around Antarctica at “mind-blowing” lows. South America is emerging from winter under a historic heat wave with temperatures well over 40 C and a heat wave is scorching Australia as well, with frightening prospects for the hotter months to come. We still don’t know how many thousands of people were killed by the flooding in Derna, Libya.
As Guterres told the UN General Assembly, “Climate change is not just a change in the weather. It is changing life on our planet. It is killing people and devastating communities… We must phase out coal, oil and gas in a fair and equitable way — and massively boost renewables.”
But I just can’t bear to leave you there. So, here’s a cleanse: miraculously, the beloved banyan in Lahaina has sprouted green leaves. The tree has a complicated story — not native to the islands, it is, in its own way, a symbol of missionaries and colonialism. It had grown 16 major trunks and its enormous branches spread to shade two-thirds of an acre. And, of course, it may not survive. But it’s trying.
Lahaina's iconic banyan tree shows signs of life https://t.co/gVsXIEesK8
— BBC News (World) (@BBCWorld) September 22, 2023
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