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One meme to rule them all
You might be an exception to this rule but, broadly speaking, “Nobody wakes up thinking ‘What a great day for decarbonization!’” That’s an axiom you’ll hear frequently from John Marshall, who tested different climate messages with nearly 60,000 people around the world trying to figure out how to boost climate action in the public mind. He’s landed on one uniting message — “Later is too late.”
Not that the “later is too late” line will get people thinking about decarbonization, per se. In fact, the marketing guru-turned-climate-communicator thinks the conversation is already far too freighted with jargon like “decarbonization,” “anthropogenic,” and “Paris targets.” However important in their own spheres, those kinds of terms will forever be gobbledygook, turning off the broad public.
Instead, Marshall says there’s overwhelming evidence for one particular line of communication that jumps out from all those message tests, conducted in randomized, controlled trials: Love for the next generation.
Marshall’s organization, the Potential Energy Coalition, teamed up with the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and tested all kinds of reasons for acting on climate: protection from extreme weather, justice, jobs and economic potential. Love won, by a large margin.
It had almost double the impact of “making polluters pay.”
“Across every country, the dominant reason for action on climate change was protecting the planet for the next generation. This reason was 12 times more popular than creating jobs,” according to the research summary. The global report is titled Later is Too Late (marketers are very keen on simplicity and repetition — two things Marshall thinks the climate movement sorely lacks).
Infographic from the Potential Energy Coalition
Almost 80 per cent of people around the world already want their governments to take action. The 23 countries in the study account for 70 per cent of the world’s population, and 77 per cent of people in the message testing agreed with the statement, “It is essential that our government does whatever it takes to limit the effects of climate change.”
“Whatever it takes” is a very strong position. But as Canadians know, there can be a treacherous gulf between generalized support and backing for specific policies. Winning on any given policy requires a drumbeat of strong framing and that’s where understanding motivation might really make a difference. The most effective narrative, according to Potential Energy, is the “urgent generational message.”
Why do we need clean electricity standards? To protect our kids and the places we love. Why do we have to implement all these new policies in the midst of an affordability crisis? Because “later is too late.”
You won’t be surprised there are several dispiriting findings in the research. But the most refreshing is that the winning climate narrative doesn’t need to be cloaked in appeals to co-benefits like jobs or otherwise overthought. If the message is relevant to people and not technocratic, you can go “right in through the front door and talk about climate and urgency,” says Marshall.
In fact, the research throws a monkey wrench in the debate about motivation by fear versus hope. For normal people, it’s simply the wrong debate. According to the data-crunchers, “The big motivator is protecting what we love.”
Among the dispiriting findings is how poorly people understand the issue. Less than half have heard of the Paris Agreement. Only 20 per cent correctly identify the goals of limiting global heating below 1.5 C or 2 C. If you held any hope of rallying the public behind a temperature target, be forewarned — most people think it should be somewhere around 4 C.
Equally troublesome is that “whatever it takes,” apparently doesn’t include bans and limitations. Support drops nine to 20 percentage points for messages that used words like “phaseout” or “ban.”
Take the controversy about gas in the home: only half the public would be willing to consider a ban on gas-powered appliances and heating/cooling systems. But 70 per cent support a mandate that builders install “the latest clean technology.”
There is one exception to the resistance to limitations, and it’s an impactful one: pollution. People understand pollution, they don’t like it and they support measures to get rid of it. Pollution is a mental model people have already integrated, so it can be leveraged by emphasizing that burning fossil fuels causes pollution that’s heating the planet.
The testing found the most popular policies are designed to boost clean energy or limit pollution and Potential Energy strongly recommends advocates lean into talking about climate pollution much more than they currently do.
Over 2,000 Canadians had their motivations scrutinized during the global study. Compared to the global average, Canadians are less alarmed about climate change and less comfortable talking about it.
On the other hand, Canadians understand the issues better than most. (One-third of us can identify the UN goals of 1.5 C and 2 C.) And Canadians are more “moveable” than average. The argument that “later is too late” to protect future generations generates a lift in support of 14 percentage points — the kind of number political operatives salivate over.
The political dimension is particularly striking in Canada. Not quite as severe as in the U.S., where people who identify as Republican are among the least supportive of climate policy in the entire world, second only to the hard-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in Germany. But support for climate action is near the global low among people identifying with the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC).
The CPC is among a small handful of outliers on this score — out of 82 political parties across the 23 countries studied, only six have less than majority support for climate policies. They are political parties in countries that are both wealthy and home to large fossil fuel industries.
Records smashed
“2023 was an exceptional year, with climate records tumbling like dominoes,” says Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. “Temperatures during 2023 likely exceed those of any period in at least the last 100,000 years.”
As readers of this newsletter, you’re probably among the minority who do understand the significance of temperature figures. The planetary report card shows Earth 2023 was just shy of 1.5 C hotter than before industrial burning of fossil fuels (1.48 C). Last year smashed previous records by a large margin. Every day in 2023 was at least 1 C above pre-industrial times. Scientists forecast the running average for the next 12 months will exceed 1.5 C.
“Every year for the rest of your life will be one of the hottest [on] record,” Andrew Dessler told The Guardian. “This in turn means that 2023 will end up being one of the coldest years of this century. Enjoy it while it lasts.”
Petrostate minister to lead next climate talks
Azerbaijan will host the UN climate talks this year in the capital Baku, and Ecology Minister Mukhtar Babayev will lead COP29. Before politics, Babayev worked at Azerbaijan's state oil company for over 20 years.
Azerbaijan is arguably the birthplace of oil. As early as the 13th century, Marco Polo reported: “There is a spring from which gushes a stream of oil in such abundance that a hundred ships may load there at once. This oil is not good to eat; but it is good for burning and as a salve for men and camels affected with itch or scab.”
Later, Azerbaijan would host some of the first drilled wells and even the first oil tanker, the Zoroaster, plying the Caspian Sea. Fun fact: Azerbaijan’s industry was largely developed by Ludvig and Robert Nobel, enriching the family along with their brother Alfred Nobel — oil and dynamite is how we got the Nobel Prizes.
U.K. Conservative minister resigns
A Conservative MP and former secretary of energy in the U.K.’s government has resigned in protest over the party’s push for oil and gas drilling.
Chris Skidmore declared the government’s strategy under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to be a “tragedy” that “the future will judge harshly” and announced he would quit parliament altogether.
“At a time when we should be committing to more climate action, we simply do not have any more time to waste promoting the future production of fossil fuels that is the ultimate cause of the environmental crisis that we are facing,” Skidmore said.
LNG may be the sleeper climate issue of 2024
“One of the biggest climate stories in Canada in 2024 might well prove to be a project that, so far at least, few in the country have heard of — Ksi Lisims LNG,” writes Seth Klein.
The LNG terminal is being proposed by the Nisga’a Nation in northwestern B.C. in conjunction with Alberta-based Rockies LNG and Texas-based Western LNG. The project would entail another new gas pipeline — TC Energy's Prince Rupert Gas Transmission Project, “roughly the same size as Coastal GasLink and built by the same company that has violated the consent of Wet'suwet'en hereditary leaders.”
And “the hydroelectric power needed to power Ksi Lisims would be equivalent to all the power produced by the soon-to-be-completed Site C dam. Meaning, after all the public cost ($16 billion by the latest count), ecological disruption and Indigenous objections involved in the construction of this new hydro facility, none of its new power (would) be available to electrify/decarbonize our homes and vehicles.”
There are five proposed LNG projects on the West Coast. “If all five … are developed, they will produce around 30.3 megatonnes per year, blowing through the province's 9.3-megatonne oil and gas industry emission target,” reports Matteo Cimellaro. Several First Nations are banking on LNG as a path to prosperity — at what cost?
“The coastal nations are counting on LNG to uplift their communities after 150 years of impoverishment and degraded social conditions unleashed by colonial policies and land dispossession. However, they face criticism from environmentalists and other regional First Nations for the climate and environmental consequences of a massive expansion of new gas infrastructure."
Competition Bureau investigates Enbridge
Competition Bureau Canada has launched an investigation against gas giant Enbridge following allegations the company is deceptively marketing the role of gas in the energy transition.
“Specifically, Enbridge has promoted new gas hook-ups as the cheapest way for Ontarians to heat their homes, while branding natural gas as “low carbon” and “clean energy,” reports John Woodside.
The investigation follows a formal complaint filed by Environmental Defence, Ontario Clean Air Alliance, the Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment and a group of Ontario residents.
Oil lobby launches new campaign
The oil industry is launching a new eight-figure ad campaign to capitalize on the war in Gaza and attacks in the Red Sea to increase production. Called “Lights on Energy,” the ads by the American Petroleum Institute use images of school buses, footballers under floodlights and concert goers waving their phones to convince voters that oil and natural gas are “vital to our energy future.”
Logging industry devours forests crucial to fighting climate change
“Logging has inflicted severe damage to the vast boreal forests in Ontario and Quebec,” reports the New York Times, based on a new study.
“Logging has shattered this forest, leaving behind a patchwork of isolated stands of trees that has created a landscape less able to support wildlife, according to the study. And it has made the land more susceptible to wildfire, scientists say.”
Peter Wood, a lecturer on forest management at the University of British Columbia, who was not involved in the study, calls the findings “shocking.”
“Canada has downplayed the impact of the forest industry,” he says.
Germany's CO2 emissions drop to lowest level in seven decades
Renewable energy accounted for over half of Germany’s electricity production in 2023 and carbon dioxide emissions dropped to the lowest level in 70 years.
Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck, a member of the Green party, said, “We are making visible progress on the road to climate-neutral electricity supply” but the CO2 reductions are also attributed to economic weakness and international crises.
Record pace for renewables
Renewable energy is growing so quickly that the International Energy Agency (IEA) had to revise its forecasts (again). The world’s renewable energy capacity grew by almost 50 per cent in 2023.
“While the increases in renewable capacity in Europe, the United States and Brazil hit all-time highs, China’s acceleration was extraordinary,” says the IEA. “In 2023, China commissioned as much solar PV (photovoltaic) as the entire world did in 2022, while its wind additions also grew by 66 per cent year-on-year. Globally, solar PV alone accounted for three-quarters of renewable capacity additions worldwide.
Interest swelling in marine carbon removal
We are getting ever closer to a world of geoengineering projects — a realm formerly inhabited only by science fiction writers. I’ll leave you with Rochelle Baker’s article about the swelling interest in ocean carbon removal: “It’s not a question of whether we do carbon removal, but rather where we do it,” one player told Canada’s National Observer.
“The ocean is already the planet’s greatest carbon sink, absorbing 30 per cent of human-caused emissions and 90 per cent of excess heat fuelled by greenhouse gases,” writes Baker.
“There’s a rising swell of interest in marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) solutions aiming to scale up and speed the ocean’s natural biological or chemical processes to capture and store CO2.
“However, there’s a schism among researchers, some of whom are apprehensive about novel strategies that haven’t yet been tested on a large scale.”