NDP leader Thomas Mulcair struck a bullish tone following the Munk federal candidates' debate on Sept. 28, declaring that his party would win come Oct. 19 and dismissing the idea of a Harper minority proroguing Parliament.
“We’re planning to win on Oct. 19 and form a strong, stable, majority New Democratic government for the first time in Canadian history,” Mulcair told National Observer.
His confident tone belied the NDP’s sliding approval ratings, which now have the party in third place at 27.6 per cent, behind Justin Trudeau’s Liberals at 30.4 per cent and Stephen Harper’s Conservatives, who are now in the lead at 32 per cent, according to the latest CBC Poll Tracker results released just one day before the Munk Debate on Sept. 27.
Poll data released by Abacus shows that NDP support is slipping even in their Quebec stronghold, with support standing at 30 per cent, down from 47 per cent approval ratings over the last three weeks. The Liberals are at 24 per cent and the Tories are at 21 per cent, just one per cent above the Bloc Quebecois.
"We are at a level of support right now that is an historic high for the NDP," said Mulcair when pressed on the issue.
When Justin Trudeau was asked what he would do in a prorogation scenario after the federal election, he mentioned Canadians’ need for a more forward-thinking government as he did during the Munk Debate, but did not go into any details on how he would try and topple a Harper minority.
“I look forward to seeing on Oct. 19 Canadians choosing a better government, one that actually invests in our communities and restores Canada’s place on the world stage,” said Trudeau.
However, Conservative spokesperson Kory Teneycke adopted a more cautious ‘wait and see’ approach, despite his party’s recently-improved poll numbers.
“I think we’re better to wait for Canadians to actually cast their ballots and see what happens. We’ll look at what the situation in Parliament is after Oct. 19,” said Teneycke.
While he kept his cards close to his chest this time round, the Conservatives successfully prevented a possible NDP-Grit coalition toppling their minority government in November 2008, just weeks after winning re-election and beating then-Liberal leader Stephane Dion in the polls.
It remains to be seen how the Munk Debates, which focused on foreign policy issues such as the refugee crisis, war against the Islamic State, foreign trade and climate change, will affect the three major parties’ poll standings.
If Canada makes concessions regarding dairy and poultry supply management in the Trans Pacific Partnership talks currently underway, it may raise the ire of farmers and place many Conservative rural safe seats into play for the NDP.
Mulcair could yet benefit from his party’s defence of Canadian supply management, as well as his stance regarding Bill C-51, the controversial anti-terror law passed by the Harper government that many say restricts free speech.
Climate change a battleground
In between ongoing rows over refugees, terrorism, and international trade, Mulcair's climate agenda was thrown into the spotlight, as Trudeau mocked his inability to get Alberta's premier Rachel Notley to sign on to his proposed national carbon cap and trade system.
"When you can't even get an NDP premier to agree with your plan you're in real trouble, Mr. Mulcair," said Trudeau.
Speaking earlier on Sept. 28, Notley said that a plan like Mulcair's "may not be our best road forward," but also vowed to phase out coal power in Alberta as quickly as possible and invest more in renewable energy sources.
Alongside the cap-and-trade program, Mulcair's plan includes pledges to crack down on heavy polluters and also allows provinces to opt out, if their own climate mitigation strategies are as good or better than what an NDP government would implement nationally.
Mulcair promised that under an NDP government, federal climate change initiatives would be undertaken in collaboration with provinces, territories, municipalities and Indigenous governments. Carbon pricing revenues would be returned to the provinces for re-investment into greenhouse gas reduction efforts.
While Green Party leader Elizabeth May welcomed Mulcair's proposal as "a good start on climate change," it does not include any comprehensive emissions reductions target ahead of the Conference of Parties (COP) 21 talks, scheduled to start in Paris in two months' time.
Canada's lack of an emissions target - coupled with PM Harper's ongoing indifference towards international climate action - has left this country lagging behind other nations such as Brazil, which last week pledged to cut greenhouse gas output by more than one-third over the next decade.
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