Whether he stays or goes in 2022, Trudeau has bred several worthy successors

Will he stay or go?

That’s the perennial question on many pundits and federal Liberals’ minds as 2022 gets underway.

For several reasons, it shouldn’t even be a question. That’s because after more than six years as prime minister, Justin Trudeau has won three consecutive elections — a remarkable political feat few of his predecessors have managed.

Despite this reality, it’s not all sunshine and lollipops in Canada’s natural governing party these days.

There are a couple of reasons for this. First, it’s universally accepted among the political class that Trudeau triggered an unnecessary election last summer with the express intent of regaining a majority government. When that didn’t materialize, many began to question his political judgment for the first time in his 13-year political career.

Second, to astute observers, Trudeau often now appears bored in the job. The immense excitement and energy that surrounded his prime ministership in his first term have all but dissipated. Since he won his second minority government on Sept. 20, the prime minister has moved at a glacial pace to appoint a new cabinet, convene the House of Commons, and present a new governing agenda.

But whether he stays or goes in 2022, Trudeau has bred an array of diverse senior Liberal Party figures who could potentially succeed him when he decides to take the proverbial “walk in the snow,” as his father memorably did one evening in February 1984 amid a fierce Ottawa blizzard.

Chrystia Freeland

In the unofficial race to succeed Trudeau, Chrystia Freeland is the indisputable front-runner — both in perception and reality. As deputy prime minister and minister of finance, Freeland is the most influential and powerful cabinet minister in government by a mile. No minister has held both critical roles at the same time since Liberal heavyweight John Manley in 2002-03. In Ottawa, Freeland is universally seen as the Trudeau government’s chief operating officer, given her role as vice-chair of the cabinet committee on Agenda, Results, and Communications (the prime minister chairs the committee).

An Ivy-league educated renowned author and journalist, there is no doubt Freeland’s intellect and shrewd managerial competence is at the heart of the government’s more notable successes over the past two years. She also benefits from the impression among official Ottawa that Freeland is the prime minister’s preferred successor.

In spite of all this, as former CTV journalist Don Martin recently noted, not everyone is singing Freeland’s praises these days. Many in Ottawa view her public persona as both aloof and condescending. Her relations with the 160-member Liberal caucus are seen as an afterthought and senior bureaucrats complain she acts as if her leadership victory is a fait accompli. Others say she lacks sound political judgment, citing a manipulated video of Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole that she posted to Twitter in the midst of last year’s election campaign.

Odds: 1/2

Mark Carney

When you look at the significant public policy challenges Canada faces in this third decade of the 21^st century, Mark Carney’s professional background and expertise are tailored to the turbulent times we find ourselves in. The former Goldman Sachs executive and Department of Finance official, who was also governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, is ideally suited to tackle the stark fiscal and inflationary pressures this country faces. As the current United Nations Special Envoy on Climate Action and Finance, Carney would bring impeccable environmental credentials to a leadership contest where the primacy of climate change would be front and centre on Liberals’ minds.

Some are already questioning Carney’s political bona fides, comparing his potential candidacy to that of former Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff. But this assessment is flawed. While he recently released a well-publicized book, Value(s), Carney was never a career public intellectual and has spent the majority of his career in this country.

If Carney has one central weakness, it’s that he’s an elite, white male at a moment when the political floodgates are being rightly opened up to more diverse voices. Compounding this reality is an outward desire among many establishment and grassroots Liberals to anoint a woman as Trudeau’s successor — making history as the party’s first female leader and prime minister. In that sense, given the environment the party and country find themselves in today, one senses Carney’s leadership moment is already in the rear-view mirror.

Odds: 1/5

Anita Anand

It’s exceedingly rare to see a political novice rise through the ranks to the top echelons of politics and government as rapidly as Anita Anand has. In less than three years, Anand catapulted from a distinguished corporate governance professor few knew outside academia, to one of the government’s most consequential ministers. Dubbed the “Minister of Vaccines” for her immense success in procuring Canada’s supply of COVID-19 shots throughout the first half of the pandemic, Anand quickly became a household name among political watchers as minister of Public Services and Procurement.

But beyond her obvious talents and managerial skills, Anand offers a compelling personal story. A Nova Scotia native, she is the daughter of two immigrant physicians of Indian descent. And when she opted to take the plunge into public life in 2019, the red carpet was not rolled out for her. Instead, she ran in a contested nomination in her riding of Oakville defeating a former Queen’s Park cabinet minister.

In an interview late last year with veteran Liberal operative and host of the Herle Burly Podcast, David Herle, Anand made comments that might foreshadow the direction she’d take the party if she were to succeed Trudeau. When asked by Herle what one of the government’s chief vulnerabilities is in her Oakville riding, Anand responded that fiscal discipline and debt reduction are key constituent concerns that she takes very seriously given her previous career as an academic in corporate and securities law. For those Liberals craving a return to the fiscal prudence of the Chrétien-Martin years, Anand’s candidacy could offer hope.

Odds: 1/3

François-Philippe Champagne

A well-known personality among Quebec political class, it’s fair to say François-Philippe Champagne is far from a household name in English Canada. And yet, the indefatigable minister has developed a well-earned reputation as a hard-working energizer bunny in a variety of challenging cabinet posts. The trilingual Champagne entered public life in 2015 armed with second-to-none international legal and business experience. He was elected in Saint-Maurice-Champlain — a storied riding Jean Chrétien represented for more than a decade when he was prime minister. In 2009, the Shawinigan native was named a Young Global Leader by the World Economic Forum; at the time, Champagne expressed a desire to eventually return to Canada to enter politics citing Chretien as an inspiration.

The National Post’s John Ivison recently penned a profile on the minister strongly suggesting Champagne would represent a more business-savvy direction for the party as leader. Long seen as one of a dying breed of “business Liberals” around Trudeau’s cabinet, Champagne is a relentless advocate for the business community and a proponent for attracting more foreign direct investment to Canada. Although his odds of victory are slim-to-none, Champagne might be the only leadership candidate willing to champion a brand of more centrist Liberalism that is unapologetically pro-business.

Odds: 1/20

Mélanie Joly

In the prime minister’s last cabinet shuffle, Mélanie Joly was arguably the biggest winner, vaulting into the prestigious Foreign Affairs portfolio after holding several junior- to middle-level posts in Trudeau’s cabinet. After her humiliating demotion in 2018 as Minister of Canadian Heritage, she was handed the obscure tourism and official languages portfolios.

What Joly does bring to a future leadership contest is impeccable credentials as a Liberal organizer in Quebec — a track record that was rewarded in the lead-up to last year’s election campaign when Trudeau appointed her as co-chair of the party’s national campaign committee. She’s also seen as someone who has been unfailingly loyal to the prime minister and this could be rewarded by some prominent members of Trudeau’s brain trust when a leadership contest is triggered.

While Joly’s prospects are that of a “dark horse” candidate, in the likely event she comes up short, it won’t be because she hails from La Belle Province like the prime minister. That’s because the Liberal Party’s deep-rooted tradition of alternating between anglophone and francophone leaders will likely end with the prime minister’s departure. In a post-Trudeau era, it’s far more likely Liberals will attempt to alternate between male and female leaders, particularly in light of the fact gender parity in cabinet has become an expectation in the party since 2015.

Odds: 1/10