If the polls are correct, the Liberal Party’s days in power are numbered. The next election could come at any time — October 2025, at the latest — and there are still a handful of climate policies the government is trying to get over the finish line while it has the chance.
“In my opinion, any regulation that isn't made by the time the government falls is toast,” Anna McIntosh, staff lawyer with Ecojustice, told Canada’s National Observer in a phone interview.
These regulatory changes can be made under existing law, the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, and do not require buy-in from other federal parties.
The biggest-ticket items coming soon are: an oil and gas emissions cap, new clean electricity regulations, and restrictions on methane.
If all the policies are enacted quickly, the federal government’s 2030 targets to reduce planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions will be within reach, according to the Canadian Climate Institute’s assessment of the federal government’s 2023 progress report.
“I think the biggest risk here is delay,” said Anna Kanduth, director of 440 Megatonnes (a project of the Canadian Climate Institute), in an interview with Canada’s National Observer.
“We know that policies take time to implement. We know that they take time to affect, because they take time to change consumer behavior, to change private sector behavior, so it's really about moving as quickly as possible to get these policies in place.”
Oil and gas emissions cap
One of the most highly anticipated regulations still in the works is the federal government’s long-promised cap on oil and gas emissions.
Canada’s emissions decreased in 2023 but this progress was undermined by rising emissions from the oil and gas and transportation sectors, according to the Canadian Climate Institute’s early estimate of national greenhouse gas emissions.
Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault said at a press conference on Sept. 24 the draft emissions cap regulations are coming in “a matter of weeks.” After they are introduced, the public and industry stakeholders are usually given a few months to submit comments on new regulations.
The Bloc Quebecois, NDP and Green Party support the federal government’s plan to cap emissions from oil and gas production. The federal Conservative Party — and a slew of provincial government leaders, including Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe — have claimed the regulations will limit oil and gas production. But Guilbeault and federal Energy and Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson have repeatedly stated the regulations will cap upstream emissions from the oil and gas sector, not production.
Depending on the final design, the oil and gas emissions cap could deliver between seven and 34 per cent of emissions reductions expected from the federal climate plan between now and 2030, the Canadian Climate Institute noted in a March report.
Clean electricity regulations
The clean electricity regulations — which aim to decarbonize Canada’s electricity grid by 2035 — are further along and equally controversial among provinces and conservative politicians. Alberta and Saskatchewan have repeatedly panned the federal plan to clean up the power grid. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith called the 2035 deadline “unrealistic” and Alberta Environment Minister Rebecca Schulz referred to it as “the most destructive piece of Canadian electricity regulation in decades,” in a statement to Canada’s National Observer earlier this year.
The draft regulations were published last summer and Guilbeault said to expect the final regulations by mid to end of November. Electrifying everything from cars to home heating to industry is critical if Canada hopes to meet its climate targets. And that electricity cannot come from burning fossil fuels.
Wilkinson established working groups so the federal government can talk directly with individual provinces and territories about the regulations and other regional topics and concerns. Saskatchewan is the only province not participating in the initiative in some way.
The Canadian Climate Institute’s Kanduth said the institute is also waiting to find out more about promised clean electricity tax credits, “which are really seen as a companion” to the regulations. “These investment tax credits create incentives for companies to adopt non-emitting electricity,” she said.
According to Budget 2024, the legislation for this tax credit is expected in the fall.
Methane regulations
The federal government is also strengthening regulations to limit the amount of methane — a potent greenhouse gas — entering the atmosphere. Methane is emitted during the production, processing, storage, transmission, distribution, and use of natural gas and crude oil, as well as from agriculture and landfill waste.
Canada has two different sets of methane regulations nearing completion.
One deals with methane emissions in the oil and gas sector. Environment and Climate Change Canada released draft enhanced oil and gas methane regulations last December. Guilbeault said the final regulations are coming this fall to ensure the oil and gas sector reduces its methane emissions by at least 75 per cent by 2030.
“We already have regulations to reduce those emissions by at least 40 per cent by 2025, but we need to do better,” Guilbeault said at the Sept. 18 press conference.
The second set of methane regulations deal with emissions from landfills. These draft regulations were announced in June and followed by a 60-day public comment period.
The sooner all these policies are finalized and put into place, the sooner they can start having an impact and get Canada closer to its 2030 climate targets, Kanduth said.
But even if these regulations are in place before the next election they could still be repealed by any government, even a minority, and the federal Conservatives have indicated their opposition to both the oil and gas emissions cap and clean electricity regulations.
Regulations — compared to a policy like carbon pricing — are pretty inflexible and businesses will have to get with the program or face fines and other penalties as long as the regulations are in effect, McIntosh added.
Natasha Bulowski / Local Journalism Initiative / Canada’s National Observer
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