The Liberals are caught in the balancing act of their lives

That politics is about power ought to go without saying, but we who write about those who govern us must occasionally say so nonetheless. When the New Democratic Party ended their supply and confidence agreement with the governing Liberal Party, it soon became obvious that the Bloc Quebecois would try to fill the void and extract as much as they could from a weak government.

It was equally obvious the Liberals would have to find ways, month by month, to balance NDP and BQ demands and expectations to preserve their government and navigate promises of fiscal responsibility, appealing to younger voters, and not falling into Conservative traps.

The BQ have decided now’s their chance to speak their policy demands or hold their peace. Their price for propping up the government includes a $16 billion ask, money that the Bloc wants to fund an increase to old age security money to allow for equal payments for all seniors over 65 years old. The current program funds those 75 and older at a higher rate than those between the ages of 65 and 74. 

In addition to the OAS reform, the BQ wants more control over immigration – a perennial ask in Quebec, popular with provincial parties and the Bloc alike. The party has given the government until the end of October to pass its OAS bill – which includes navigating the legislation through the Senate, which the Liberals do not control – and meet its immigration control demands. Bloc leader Yves-Francois Blanchet says if the Liberals fail to deliver by then, he’ll start working with other opposition parties to bring down the government. 

On Wednesday, most Liberals, including Cabinet, voted against a Bloc motion calling on the government to support their OAS demands. The motion passed anyway, 181 to 143, with the support of all opposition parties, including the Tories, and five Liberal MPs; but the motion is non-binding. In short, its passage does nothing except signal support for a measure. It won’t go to the Senate. It won’t set policy. It won’t spend money. But for the Bloc, it’s a measure of where the Liberals are at in their thinking on the policy demand.

The BQ knows that the Liberals are not long for governing; so does the NDP. By October of next year, if not sooner, it’s most probable the Tories will govern. The way things stand, it’s most probable they’ll govern with a majority. Those changes in the House of Commons and in the executive will mean greatly diminished influence for the BQ and NDP, who wield more power with the seats they have in the current minority parliament than they would in any majority parliament – even if their seat counts go up. 

As observers have pointed out, the BQ’s demands put the Liberals in the awkward position of having to negotiate with a sovereigntist party – what could possibly go wrong? – in a way that undermines the government’s strategy to court younger generations and to stay within the fiscal guardrails they have set for themselves to limit deficit spending and the size of the national debt.

The Liberals, who only need support from either the BQ or NDP, will have to make bargains with one party or another, at least on a case-by-case basis if they want to pass legislation and survive. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has said his party will deal with the government on such a basis ahead of the next election, and has so far declined to vote non-confidence the two times the Conservatives have presented confidence motions in the Commons. 

No one knows what comes next. There’s no guarantee of an early election, but the odds of one have once again gone up, especially as the Liberals balked at the BQ’s OAS support motion. And yet even if the BQ sets out to topple the Liberals with the Conservatives, the government could find the support they need from the NDP, who may come up with terms of their own  or simply keep the government alive to deliver on the pharmacare bill that its promised. The Liberals could also go nuclear and prorogue Parliament to avoid a possible defeat, as Stephen Harper did in 2008.

The Liberals surely know the NDP wants pharmacare to pass and will no doubt drag their heels as an implicit, or not so implicit, threat to their erstwhile supporters. And the Conservatives will continue to goad everyone into sending Canadians to the poll, and sending their party to power.

The government’s weakness means they will be a soft target from now until the next election, with opposition parties working to extract as much as they can from them without tipping the country into an election – and diminishing their own influence in the House – until absolutely necessary. 

Now is the time of delicate balancing acts among the Liberals, New Democrats, and Bloc. And while it is likely that all three parties will work as best they can to coordinate and find agreement to keep the Liberals in government and the Tories out, the balance may be upset. If the Liberals push their luck or if a moment of crossed wires or frayed nerves should intersect with a confidence vote and bring down the Trudeau Liberals, this time it might be for good.