That politics is about power ought to go without saying, but we who write about those who govern us must occasionally say so nonetheless. When the New Democratic Party ended their supply and confidence agreement with the governing Liberal Party, it soon became obvious that the Bloc Quebecois would try to fill the void and extract as much as they could from a weak government.
It was equally obvious the Liberals would have to find ways, month by month, to balance NDP and BQ demands and expectations to preserve their government and navigate promises of fiscal responsibility, appealing to younger voters, and not falling into Conservative traps.
The BQ have decided now’s their chance to speak their policy demands or hold their peace. Their price for propping up the government includes a $16 billion ask, money that the Bloc wants to fund an increase to old age security money to allow for equal payments for all seniors over 65 years old. The current program funds those 75 and older at a higher rate than those between the ages of 65 and 74.
In addition to the OAS reform, the BQ wants more control over immigration – a perennial ask in Quebec, popular with provincial parties and the Bloc alike. The party has given the government until the end of October to pass its OAS bill – which includes navigating the legislation through the Senate, which the Liberals do not control – and meet its immigration control demands. Bloc leader Yves-Francois Blanchet says if the Liberals fail to deliver by then, he’ll start working with other opposition parties to bring down the government.
On Wednesday, most Liberals, including Cabinet, voted against a Bloc motion calling on the government to support their OAS demands. The motion passed anyway, 181 to 143, with the support of all opposition parties, including the Tories, and five Liberal MPs; but the motion is non-binding. In short, its passage does nothing except signal support for a measure. It won’t go to the Senate. It won’t set policy. It won’t spend money. But for the Bloc, it’s a measure of where the Liberals are at in their thinking on the policy demand.
The BQ knows that the Liberals are not long for governing; so does the NDP. By October of next year, if not sooner, it’s most probable the Tories will govern. The way things stand, it’s most probable they’ll govern with a majority. Those changes in the House of Commons and in the executive will mean greatly diminished influence for the BQ and NDP, who wield more power with the seats they have in the current minority parliament than they would in any majority parliament – even if their seat counts go up.
As observers have pointed out, the BQ’s demands put the Liberals in the awkward position of having to negotiate with a sovereigntist party – what could possibly go wrong? – in a way that undermines the government’s strategy to court younger generations and to stay within the fiscal guardrails they have set for themselves to limit deficit spending and the size of the national debt.
The Liberals, who only need support from either the BQ or NDP, will have to make bargains with one party or another, at least on a case-by-case basis if they want to pass legislation and survive. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh has said his party will deal with the government on such a basis ahead of the next election, and has so far declined to vote non-confidence the two times the Conservatives have presented confidence motions in the Commons.
No one knows what comes next. There’s no guarantee of an early election, but the odds of one have once again gone up, especially as the Liberals balked at the BQ’s OAS support motion. And yet even if the BQ sets out to topple the Liberals with the Conservatives, the government could find the support they need from the NDP, who may come up with terms of their own or simply keep the government alive to deliver on the pharmacare bill that its promised. The Liberals could also go nuclear and prorogue Parliament to avoid a possible defeat, as Stephen Harper did in 2008.
The Liberals surely know the NDP wants pharmacare to pass and will no doubt drag their heels as an implicit, or not so implicit, threat to their erstwhile supporters. And the Conservatives will continue to goad everyone into sending Canadians to the poll, and sending their party to power.
The government’s weakness means they will be a soft target from now until the next election, with opposition parties working to extract as much as they can from them without tipping the country into an election – and diminishing their own influence in the House – until absolutely necessary.
Now is the time of delicate balancing acts among the Liberals, New Democrats, and Bloc. And while it is likely that all three parties will work as best they can to coordinate and find agreement to keep the Liberals in government and the Tories out, the balance may be upset. If the Liberals push their luck or if a moment of crossed wires or frayed nerves should intersect with a confidence vote and bring down the Trudeau Liberals, this time it might be for good.
Comments
A lot can happen in a year and please all the gods it will by the next election whenever it comes. Let people rethink what they re choosing in their frustration and blame games.
A new con government is the worst case scenario for our country, especially its youth, its women, indigenous, minorities, elderly, ill and disabled, the unhoused and the needy. And Guys, how many of you are seriously thinking pp has your backs, really? Remember harper? who pulls his strings still?
Our climate will have no voice and anyone who would consider pp a war prime minister in the face of current threats, not to mention very serious accusations of foreign paymasters at the top, well, let s just not be too willing to hand over the country to those who wish us ill.
Maybe the once free and magnificent Canadian press, or enough of them, will rediscover their voices and call out the threats and options.
And please also let the other opposition parties, not so loyal to the country rediscover what it means to speak truth to power. I do not know how you got lost but you need to get your voices back back.
We need you more urgently than ever.
Pierre "Snake Oil Salesman" Poilievre is definitely not an option, it is pretty clear the party is into climate change denialism, questionable on rights for women to choose what they do with their bodies, and to me, very clear the cons will bend to what ever oil & gas wants or doesn't want.
Pee Pee is a career politician that has ZERO real-world experience, has accomplished nothing the whole time as a politician, other than try and rig elections and unfit to lead this country. It seems he has a hidden agenda that will only be revealed once elected.
This country will be in serious trouble once Pee Pee gains power with the rash of free-dumb MPs in it's ranks.
What a thoughtful and encompassing response to our national condition.
Back in the early oughts Stephen Harper sought a deal with the BQ to create a Conservative minority government. The letter they signed is still out there on the web. He went on to call Quebec a nation within Canada, or some such meaningless language that doesn't enhance either separatism or confederation.
Democracy is more resilient than we give credit to.
Social media has changed everything though. For example, who can wrap their head around what's happening in B.C. right now? And I guess we have to expect that the idiot Scott Moe will win power again despite what he's done, like Fug Dord.
As with alcoholism, there is now a deeply embedded "high tolerance for inappropriate behavior," so here in Alberduh we're probably going to see that much-discussed collapse of public health care first....these morons have the nerve to drag their feet on public vaccination as flu season approaches, avoid the public broadcaster completely, talking about changing the province's Bill of Rights on YOU-TUBE instead, where they also talk seriously about "chemtrails," apparently to placate their BASE, who are clearly out of their minds, but have power nonetheless because they're on the UCP BOARD. They've weaponized all the features of our civilized, democratic society, including our language and are using them against us with absolute pleasure. Even Adriana LeGrange, our "health minister" who has a certificate from Humber College and was a "pro-life" activist has the language down now. I heard her say with a straight, stupid face that "our government takes the health and security of Albertans VERY seriously."
As Timothy Caulfield says (much-called on of late by a media that doesn't even know what to DO anymore), what the premier says DISQUALIFIES her. But all that matters is that she/they WON the election, "fair and square." Nevertheless, the United Chaos Peddlers have now prohibited voting machines to line up with the appalling GOP who are utterly unaware of their existence.
One despairs.
Excellent overview today in the Globe:https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-make-britain-great-agai…
"United Chaos Peddlers." Good one!
Yes, it's true. Internet streaming now dominates media communication. It's bigger than broadcast and print media. We hear about YouTube rules and demonitization, but there is still a tremendous amount of genuine science and sound political analysis on it. Mainstream media is well distributed with their own channels.
YT is now pulling out of Russia over their mass murder in Ukraine (finally!) and that's leaving their Putin propaganda affiliated carriers in Russia without a platform.
Google owns YT and the Android operating system. Apple owns the other major OS. Both are as defunct in Russia now as airplane parts made in the West. One of the few remaining Western systems willingly remaining in Russia is Elon Musk's StarLink satellite system which is used for communication and navigation, including by the Russian military. Elon loves Vlad.
Isn't the Bloc's other demand enshrining protection for dairy farmers?
Of "their" lives? Of OUR lives.