A survey concluded there is widespread opposition to British Columbia's plan to replace fossil fuel-powered vehicles with electric cars. But observers say the survey was crafted to heighten a sense of public discontent, rather than reflect the reality on the ground.
On Thursday, the Canadian Automobile Dealers Association, Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association and Global Automakers of Canada released a commissioned survey that found half of B.C. residents oppose the province's plan to require that all vehicles sold in the province be electric or plug-in hybrids by 2035. According to the results, four in10 of the respondents wouldn't consider a zero-emissions vehicle for their next purchase.
A major factor cited in people's opposition is the higher cost of electric vehicles and concern that the rules will increase the price of a car, truck or SUV. The higher cost would be passed on to consumers by manufacturers who will face penalties if they can't comply with the mandate. The results also suggested that people were unsure B.C. has enough charging infrastructure to ensure they could travel through the province.
"The survey illustrates a clear disconnect between the government's regulated zero-emissions vehicle sales requirements and the realities facing British Columbians," said Brian Kingston, president and CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association. "Automakers are committed to electrification…but for this transition to succeed, we have to have realistic policies in place."
Previous research, released in September by Ipsos for the Energy Futures Institute, found similar results: 53 per cent of respondents oppose the province's EV mandate. And consumer reporting shows interest in EVs has been flagging.
But clean energy experts say the survey results should be viewed with skepticism and warn the questions are worded to generate the illusion there is more opposition to the rules than actually exists.
"It's very tempting to see the result of a poll and think that's a mirror held up to reality. It is not," said Trevor Melanson, director of communications for Clean Energy Canada, a think-tank based at Simon Fraser University.
"It is people's answer to the exact question, word for word, that you ask them."
According to the automakers' poll, only 15 per cent of respondents knew about the province's EV mandate, which in fact contains a suite of complex regulations that are targeted at car makers.
Beyond the sales mandate, the regulations create a credit system where manufacturers who don't sell a high enough proportion of EVs relative to gas vehicles must purchase $20,000 credits from others who outdo their EV sales targets, or install charging infrastructure as a penalty. The goal is to push carmakers to make more EVs (also known as zero-emissions vehicles, or ZEVs), ultimately pushing down prices for consumers by increasing the number of EVs on the market.
A June analysis by Environmental Defense and researchers at Simon Fraser University found that similar federal rules would cut EV prices by 20 per cent on average compared to business-as-usual.
Those technical details are not accurately represented in the automakers' poll, Melanson said. Take a question that addresses the credit system, which asks whether respondents knew that vehicle manufacturers "may not be able to provide consumers a gasoline-powered vehicle until enough ZEV are sold or face a $20,000 penalty for each non-ZEV that exceeds the mandated percentage?"
The $20,000 "penalty," Melanson noted, is actually the cost for the company to buy an EV sales credit from another company that exceeds its EV sales targets. They will not pay if they make enough EVs, nor will they necessarily pass it on to consumers if they want to remain competitive, he said.
Another survey question asked respondents if they "believe there will be enough reliable and affordable electricity available in B.C. to support the government's ZEV regulations?" Meeting the target would require the addition of about half the amount of electricity produced by the Site C dam by 2030, it read. Almost 60 per cent of respondents answered they did not believe enough power would be available.
But Melanson said the question paints an inaccurate picture. BC Hydro estimates that the province's current EV sales requirements will only increase power demand by two per cent by 2030. Site C will add about eight per cent to B.C.’s energy supply. As the number of EVs grows over the next 30 years, the utility will have time to improve the grid and increase renewable power generation. Researchers at the University of Victoria have found that B.C. can meet its entire projected future demand for power with renewable energy.
"It is in the interest of the fossil fuel industry to slow down electrification by trying to make it sound harder than it is," Melanson said. "It's misleading."
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