British Columbians are rightfully concerned about the economy, housing and healthcare — all the things directly affected by carbon emissions. Yet, climate is not at the top of the list.
Federally, it’s the same story in recent Abacus and Nanos polls.
Sadly, the climate does not care about voter preferences. Impacts from carbon emissions persistently worsen if our politicians fail to implement and keep policies that prevent burning of coal, oil and natural gas.
Over the last three decades, climate scientists have not changed their minds. All independent reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change state that climate-sincere politicians need to either levy a tax on carbon emissions or regulate our choice of cars, furnaces and other key technologies to reduce our carbon footprint
Yes, that’s right. Our political leaders must either tax carbon “or” regulate technologies. They don’t have to do both. They can, in fact, repeal carbon taxes and still be climate-sincere, if they commit to sustaining and improving our emission-reducing regulations. B.C.’s carbon tax is effective and well known, but it is heavily disliked. The good news is, our previous political leaders introduced equally effective emission-reducing regulations that can accomplish this without the carbon tax. What are those?
In 2007, the Liberal government under Gordon Campbell required BC Hydro to only generate electricity from projects with zero emissions. This immediately resulted in the cancelation of two coal plants and one natural gas plant, avoiding massive emissions from similar plants in the future. B.C.’s electricity is now effectively zero-emission and will stay that way if the government keeps this requirement.
The Campbell government also implemented the low carbon fuel standard, which requires the gradual substitution of fossil-originated gasoline and diesel by low-carbon sources of biodiesel, ethanol, electricity and hydrogen. Since 2008, B.C.’s car drivers purchase cleaner fuels at the pump each year.
In 2019, the NDP government under John Horgan added the zero-emission vehicle sales mandate, which requires a gradually rising market share for electric, plug-in hybrid and hydrogen vehicles. Opponents have claimed this policy prevents gasoline vehicles after 2035, but this is not true. The mandate is only for new vehicles, so there will remain many gasoline vehicles well into the 2040s. Also, 10 to 20 per cent of sales in 2035 could be plug-in hybrids, which are cars and trucks that burn gasoline and diesel, eliminating reliability concerns.
We have several other emission-reducing regulations. Experts refer to these as flexible regulations because they do not prescribe what people should buy, only what they cannot buy. As such, the zero-emission vehicle sales mandate allows consumers to decide if they prefer pure electric, hydrogen, or plug-in hybrids. Likewise, electricity producers must choose low emission sources, but market conditions determine the relative role of hydro, solar, wind, geothermal, wood or even natural gas plants that capture and store their post-combustion emissions.
Opponents of flexible regulations state we don’t have enough electricity to meet climate goals. This is simply not true, as the recent response to BC Hydro’s call for power showed overwhelming interest from renewable electricity suppliers. We also receive reliable and cheap electricity from our neighbours as a result of the longstanding electricity trade.
If we truly care about the economy, housing and healthcare, then we should care about climate with all the impacts of carbon emissions.
Voting smart on climate is choosing politicians who commit to a continuously rising carbon tax “or” rising stringency for flexible regulations like those listed above, combined with additional ones in industry, buildings and transport. Without carbon pricing or flexible regulations, we will see sharp increases in emissions — after a long period of stability and modest decline, overwhelmed by population growth.
And if a politician argues B.C. should do nothing on climate, then all the other concerns will relentlessly get worse.
Preferences change.
Climate policy prescriptions don’t.
Katya Rhodes is a distinguished associate professor at the University of Victoria, currently serving as a BC Advisor to the Minister of Environment and Climate Change Canada on the Federal Sustainable Development Strategy. This article does not reflect the positions of these institutions, but rather her personal views as an independent climate policy expert.
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