Nova Scotia Tories appear set to win election

With two days left before Nova Scotians elect their next government, polls suggest Progressive Conservative Leader Tim Houston’s decision to call an early vote will pay off and the real battle will be between the Liberals and NDP for second place.

The Progressive Conservatives are seeking a second consecutive mandate Tuesday after sweeping the Liberals from power in August 2021. Tory Leader Tim Houston called the snap election on Oct. 27 citing the need for a fresh mandate and ignoring his government’s election law, which for the first time in Nova Scotia set a fixed election date — July 15, 2025.

In a recent interview, Alex Marland, a political scientist at Acadia University, said the final result is shaping up to be what Houston hoped for when he called the election. Marland said several factors were at play in Houston’s political calculus to go early.

“He was ahead in the polls and there was the lack of public attention or excitement or enthusiasm for an election coming against the backdrop of all the attention paid to the U.S. election, and of course there were (Nova Scotia) municipal elections,” said Marland. “The fact it was a snap election caught the other parties off guard and made it harder for them to organize.”

He said the result has been an absence of “interest, anger or motivation” on the part of the electorate. “I think that ultimately benefits the Progressive Conservatives,” said Marland.

A Narrative Research poll released Wednesday put the Tories comfortably ahead with 44 per cent support. The NDP were second at 28 per cent and the Liberals third with 24 per cent. The survey of 800 adult Nova Scotians between Nov. 4 and 17 is considered accurate within 3.5 percentage points, 95 times out of 100.

Tom Urbaniak, of Cape Breton University, said the campaign has been “maybe the quietest I’ve seen in Nova Scotia.”

“It just feels less intense on the ground," Urbaniak said. “There are fewer signs and less literature going to doors, and there appears to be less conversation in coffee shops."

He said the lack of a longer ramp-up to the fixed date has also contributed to a general lack of attention, and the 30-day campaign is the shortest allowed by law. "So that was also a factor.”

Issues such as the cost of living, a lack of affordable housing and the province’s ailing health-care system were prominent in the campaign, but no single issue dominated in the way the Progressive Conservatives managed to make health care the main issue in 2021.

Marland said what the polls suggest is that the Progressive Conservatives should “steamroll” through many rural areas outside of Halifax.

“Within the Halifax area they are in much tighter competition with the NDP and that’s a real problem for the Liberals because it suggests that the Liberals aren’t competitive anywhere,” he said. "So the real issue here … is how much of the Liberal vote will hold?"

Urbaniak said NDP Leader Claudia Chender has emerged as a solid campaigner with strong debate performances that have helped to boost her profile in her first election as leader.

With advance polling numbers pointing toward a possible low voter turnout on Tuesday, Urbaniak believes the battle between the Liberals and NDP will hinge on who can get out the most voters in ridings where they are competitive. “It (the result) will favour whoever has strong mobilization on the ground,” he said.

Liberal Leader Zach Churchill agrees. “We’ve got to get people out to vote,” Churchill said, while pointing out that Elections Nova Scotia have not sent out voter information cards because of the postal strike. “A lot of people do not know where they are voting, so it puts a lot more pressure on candidates, on their volunteers and the central campaign team to inform people," he said Friday.

Churchill said he’s proud of the campaign his party has run. “You only control what you can control. We put a lot of effort into building the right plan for this province … and we are running a campaign that’s built around ideas,” he said.

Chender believes her party’s message has been getting through as the result of hard work on the ground.

“We’ve criss-crossed the province in the last 24 hours and we are going to keep visiting as many candidates in communities as we can until election day,” she said Friday.

She also believes getting out the vote will be critical at a time of year when people are not necessarily focused on politics. "For us as New Democrats, it’s one door at a time, giving people that information about where to go vote," she said.

Houston, meanwhile, expressed confidence that his campaign has reached enough Nova Scotians to deliver his party a second term in government.

“There’s work to be done, but on balance I think Nova Scotians recognize the effort,” he said Friday. “I’m optimistic for sure, but we’ll spend the next few days continuing to work hard and getting around the province.”

At dissolution, the Progressive Conservatives held 34 seats in the 55-seat legislature and the Liberals held 14 seats, while the NDP had six and there was one Independent.  

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 24, 2024.