This year’s climate change negotiations didn’t amount to much — and even the talks’ biggest outcome has left some angry. Rich countries, including Canada, agreeing to provide at least US$300 billion to developing countries by 2035 for climate action is a “band-aid on a bullet wound,” according to advocates.
Agreeing on a new finance target was the litmus test for success at COP29. As host of this year’s summit, Azerbaijan was roundly criticized in the final days of the conference for proposing US$250 billion per year — a far cry from the US$1.3 trillion ask of many developing countries.
By the end, that US$250 billion target was nudged up to providing “at least” US$300 billion, with a goal of finding US$1.3 trillion by 2035. That slightly improved figure was still roundly criticized for being inadequate, with countries like India and Nigeria accusing the presidency of rushing the deal without all states’ consent.
“There’s no other way to say it: this COP truly sucked,” said Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, in a statement. “The climate crisis is hurting people here and now; a vague promise to be fulfilled by 2035 is an insult to those who have already lost their homes, health, and livelihoods.”
Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault called the lack of ambition from the Azeri presidency “deplorable” in the closing days of the conference, adding Azerbaijan hadn’t shown the type of leadership nations have come to expect from a country hosting U.N. summits.
After COP29 wrapped, Guilbeault was not made available for an interview, but in a statement said Canada welcomes the COP29 agreement, and will scale up its public and private financing for climate action.
The financial impacts of the climate crisis are severe. Earlier this year, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research estimated climate-linked damages to agriculture, infrastructure, health and productivity could reach $38 trillion per year by 2050 — taking nearly 20 per cent out of the global economy by mid century.
Estimates range from $7 trillion to over $10 trillion per year in climate investments are needed to stay onside with the treaty’s target.
Civil society groups like Climate Action Network Canada say while Azerbaijan deserves criticism for its poor handling of the COP, wealthy countries are ultimately to blame for failing to secure an ambitious climate finance deal. Advocates say providing funding to developing countries to pay for climate action is an essential step for the world to cut emissions, because without the cash to pay for decarbonizing or adapting to warming, it won’t be possible for countries to address the climate crisis with the urgency required.
Andréanne Brazeau, senior policy analyst, with the David Suzuki Foundation said Canada and other developed countries “abandoned” poorer countries by only agreeing to a sum of $300 billion.
“With the summit once again packed with oil and gas lobbyists, it's hardly surprising that the countries of the Global South express feelings of betrayal, distrust, and discontent at the end of this COP which saw no progress surrounding the critical phase-out of fossil fuels,” she said in a statement. “If Canada failed to show leadership in Baku, it must do so quickly at home by proposing a fair target for the year 2035, adopting the climate measures currently on the table and, of course, increasing its contribution to climate finance.”
Countries are soon required to submit new, stronger emission reduction targets under the Paris Agreement, called “nationally determined contributions” or NDCs. It is widely expected that without substantial new sums of dollars flowing into developing countries, significantly steeper emission reduction commitments won’t be on the table.
Canada’s current commitment under the Paris Agreement is to cut emissions 40 to 45 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. It has yet to set a new target, but is required to do so by Dec. 1.
Climate Action Network Canada is calling for Canada to aim for an 80 per cent reduction from 2005 levels by 2035 — a goal in line with the United Kingdom’s recent pledge.
Beyond the new finance target, COP29 brought to a close a nearly decade-long negotiation over how carbon credit trading could work between countries. Under the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, is “Article 6” which opened the door to an international carbon trading market, but the various elements of how it would work had not been agreed.
While the COP29 presidency called the “full operationalization" of Article 6 a “breakthrough,” some civil society groups are concerned, pointing to weak oversight that could lead to low quality credits being traded.
“The flaws of Article 6 have, unfortunately, not been fixed,” Isa Mulder, policy expert on global carbon markets with Carbon Market Watch, said in a statement. “It seems countries were more willing to adopt insufficient rules and deal with the consequences later, rather than prevent those consequences in the first place.”
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