A united Canada must take Trump seriously and literally

We’ve spent nearly a decade now talking about how to handle Donald Trump – and whether to take him seriously, literally, or some combination of the two. No matter what Trump says, there will always be a cadre who’ll brush it off, hope to compromise, or even plan to strategically use the Republican’s threats to their own advantage. 

How has that been working out for us?

In the lead-up to his November election, Trump spoke often about applying an across-the-board tariff of 10 per cent, or even 20 per cent, to goods entering the United States. There was hope that Canada could be spared the duties that would cause great harm to our economy, just as there was chatter that the governing Liberals might even prefer a Trump administration as an electoral advantage, a foil to run against or a point of comparison to draw with rival leader Pierre Poilievre. Whatever the case, the government promised us they were seized with the matter, whatever it might be.

Today, Canada is staring down a 25 per cent tariff unless the country meets Trump’s security demands on the border. To that end, some observers claim that the tariff threat is a bargaining position, a tactic to gain leverage on policy priorities dear to the incoming administration, including border security — related to Trump’s heinous, human-rights-busting plan to deport millions — and favourable trade terms with a renegotiation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement on the horizon in 2026.

What observers, experts, and politicians alike don’t want to admit is that they have no idea for certain what’s going to come next or how Trump will behave. Uncertainty and humility don’t play well in the expert and talking-head spaces, on television or radio, in print or online, nor are there professional consequences for getting things wrong —  save for, perhaps, the politicians, who’ll nonetheless play political chicken with lives and livelihoods. 

Indeed, this disposition of feigned certainty paves the way to treat all of this like a game, and to use it as partisan political cudgel. Canada’s Conservatives were nothing short of thrilled to jump into that game this week, adopting Trump’s framing for maximum political advantage — never mind the consequences. As Aaron Wherry writes, the initial arrival of the tariff plan was met with recriminations and finger pointing, rather than solidarity, among our leaders. 

Perhaps there’s no way to prepare for a leader like Trump, but Canadian politicians seem snake-bitten by his election and utterly mad plans, which doesn’t bode well for our capacity to manage him this time around. Trump’s tariff threats ought to be, at least for Canada, the point at which anyone who doubts that the mercurial president’s pathologies are real becomes disabused of such a notion and decides that we must meet the threat head-on, and together. Canada could absolutely face devastating 25 per cent tariffs from the U.S., just as we could face a migrant crisis on the border if Trump proceeds with his plan for mass deportations. 

With a federal election due within the next 11 months, the situation isn’t about to get any better. Parties will try to strategically mobilize the impending trade, border, and human rights crises to gain electoral advantage, even if that results in a sub-optimal national strategy to avert the worst of what could be coming.

It is possible that Trump is willing to budge on trade and border security, especially if the pressure to do so comes from close to home. Border states and plenty of American industries stand to lose, too, if he proceeds with his plans, which means there could be internal pressures, even from the Republican side, to reverse course or, at least, moderate policies. But that could be wishful thinking of the sort that we have seen throughout history that leads to a race to the ever-compromising bottom.

The smart play is to take Trump seriously and literally – and assume the worst. A pan-Canadian united approach may not be feasible, but that shouldn’t stop us from trying. Trudeau is aiming for that as he prepares to meet with the premiers over the matter. But we’ll see how that goes. My guess? Poorly.

We shouldn’t ignore political disagreements or ideological polarization, but we can focus on the immediate and shared need to avoid economic devastation and human rights abuses in the face of Trump’s trade and border policies. We can also choose to set aside crass politicking, which is different from ideological disagreement or fighting for regional priorities.

We should also each adopt a position of humility and uncertainty, a willingness to be open to considering various approaches to managing what’s coming. But whatever else is true, we ought to be aware that anybody who tells you for certain they know what will come next is probably trying to sell you a handful of magic beans – subject, of course, to import duties.