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The federal government estimates Canada’s planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions are going down, but hitting its 2030 climate targets will require much larger reductions.
In 2023, Canada’s GHG emissions were about one per cent lower than in 2022, according to new emissions estimates published on Dec. 19. This puts national emissions nearly nine per cent below 2005 levels. Canada’s current target is a 40 to 45 per cent reduction by 2030.
The early numbers do not include emissions from land use and forestry, which Environment and Climate Change Canada estimate will contribute to a 14 per cent reduction — those numbers will be released in the spring with the full emissions report. Research by environmental groups suggests the land use and forestry sector’s true GHG emissions are vastly underreported, largely due to exclusion of wildfires and insect infestations.
This is the first time the federal government has released its emissions estimates early — usually there is a two year lag in reporting greenhouse gas emissions.
The early release “is a big win for public accountability in climate policy,” Dave Sawyer, principal economist at the Canadian Climate Institute, said in an emailed statement.
“It gives policymakers and the public an earlier look at how national emissions are trending and provides an opportunity to accelerate policy action if needed,” Sawyer said. The institute did its own early emission estimate in September and the two reports “align closely,” with some uneven results across sectors, Sawyer noted.
Federal Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault says the data confirms that the government’s plan is working.
“Thanks to the work of Canadians from every region of this country, we are succeeding in cutting pollution to the lowest level in over 27 years (excluding pandemic years),” Guilbeault said in a press release accompanying the early estimates.
Electricity sector performs best
Emissions from electricity are down 58 per cent since 2005. This progress was driven by the phase-out of coal-fired electricity generation: Ontario closed its last coal-fired power plant in 2014, Manitoba stopped burning coal for power in 2018 and just this summer Alberta retired its last coal plant (although the latter won’t impact the 2023 numbers).
Emissions from the oil and gas sector are still up seven per cent compared to 2005. Oil and gas is the highest emitting economic sector in Canada, and emitted 208 Mt in 2023. The next highest sector was transport at 157 Mt.
Guilbeault said finalizing federal regulations to cap emissions from the oil and gas sector “will be essential to build a better world for our kids and grandkids.”
The draft emissions cap has met with opposition at every turn from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, the federal Conservative Party of Canada and oil and gas companies and industry groups. The Alberta government says it plans to challenge the cap in court.
Earlier this week, the federal government rolled out another set of critical regulations aimed at cleaning up Canada’s electricity grid by 2035. Some environmental groups criticized the clean electricity regulations for providing too much flexibility and allowing gas-fired power plants to operate well past the 2035 target.
Although the one per cent year-over emissions decrease is small, Sawyer said the data released today and previous research shows climate policy is working to cut carbon pollution.
“Canada’s emissions would be higher today without the actions taken to date by all levels of government since 2015,” he said, adding that existing climate policies are expected to prevent 226 Mt of carbon emissions by 2030, which is the equivalent of Quebec and Ontario’s combined annual emissions.
However, the federal government's new 2035 climate targets, announced on Dec. 12, drew the ire of environmental groups, the Green Party, Bloc Quèbècois and NDP.
The 2035 target — a 50 per cent reduction by 2030 — is essentially the smallest possible increase to the 2030 target, and risks stalling out climate action at a time when the world needs to reduce emissions rapidly in the short-term.
— With files from John Woodside
Natasha Bulowski / Local Journalism Initiative / Canada’s National Observer
Comments
"Research by environmental groups suggests the land use and forestry sector’s true GHG emissions are vastly underreported … "
"Oil and gas is the highest emitting economic sector in Canada …"
Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault: “Thanks to the work of Canadians from every region of this country, we are succeeding in cutting pollution to the lowest level in over 27 years (excluding pandemic years).”
Canada's O&G industry grossly underreports its emissions (of all types) while oil production continues to increase.
If not for the government's creative accounting, the forestry sector’s emissions would rank second only to O&G. Add emissions from wildfires and insect infestations, including on "unmanaged" lands.
Canada's emissions data is fiction. Far higher than reported.
Guilbeault's claim falls apart.
Can't fool Planet Earth.
And even if the accounting was correct, it's way too slow.
"This is the first time the federal government has released its emissions estimates early — usually there is a two year lag in reporting greenhouse gas emissions.
"The early release “is a big win for public accountability in climate policy,” Dave Sawyer, principal economist at the Canadian Climate Institute, said in an emailed statement. "
Seems to me there is a difference between prognostications (estimates) and actual emissions. Consequently, the *big win" cheerleading from Mr. Sawyer is a little puzzling to me.
What am I missing?
Further, an ostensible 1% decrease is nothing to crow about, given the dodginess of emissions statistics, generally; I'll personally remain unconvinced until such time as I see actual and substantial policy implemented to change how we actually live.