Is the Liberals' climate plan built on quicksand? A year end interview with Steven Guilbeault

As 2024 draws to a close with the Liberal government on shaky ground, climate change is tumbling down the list of political priorities.

That’s a real problem for Canadians, because climate change is already severely impacting the country. This year was the most expensive year for extreme weather disasters, with four events in July and August alone causing more than $7.7 billion in damages. 

Wildfires burned Jasper to the ground this year. Hurricanes led to flash flooding in Montreal, stranding motorists, backing up sewers, and forcing workers to swim to reach dry ground. A deep freeze in January plunged Western Canada into extremely cold temperatures, with a new daily record of -48.3 C recorded. Atmospheric rivers pummelled British Columbia, $2.8 billion in hail damage hit Calgary, and heatwaves baked the Arctic. 

Against that backdrop, this year also saw fierce debates over the future of the carbon price rocket into mainstream political discourse, defining much of the federal government’s year. 

In a year-end interview with Canada’s National Observer, Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault acknowledged the political turmoil that has engulfed his party, discussed the year’s accomplishments and setbacks, and reflected on the Liberal’s climate legacy. 

“It's been the honour of my life to serve as Canada's environment and climate change minister,” he said. “I'm hoping I can continue to contribute as much in the coming years, but… there's a lot of unknown variables that are coming our way.”

With a federal election sometime next year, “for me, the most important thing is how much time I have left,” he said. “I don't know when that election will be, but the team and I… are determined to get as many things as we can out the door before the next election.”

The last big ticket item is finalizing a cap on oil and gas pollution. But with opposition parties readying for an election, it’s unclear if the regulation will make it over the finish line in time. 

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is favoured to win and is threatening to repeal much of the Liberals’ climate plan. It’s not just regulations and legislation on the chopping block, it’s the Liberals’ legacy. 

Legacies are measured by what stands the test of time. So is the past decade’s climate work built on quicksand?

Much depends on which party wins the next election, Guilbeault says.

“If it's the Conservatives that win, they will try to destroy a lot of the things we did,” he said. “I don't think they'll be able to destroy everything, but I think we will see Canada move backwards on these issues.”

Fossil fuel-tarnished efforts

The history books of the Trudeau era will include plenty environmentalists aren’t happy with, like buying the Trans Mountain project to carry out a $34.5 billion expansion to help the oil patch, rolling out billions of dollars worth of tax credits for carbon capture and storage that extends the life of the oil and gas industry, and greenlighting or supporting new major fossil fuel projects from LNG Canada on British Columbia’s coast, to Bay du Nord, off the coast of Newfoundland. 

But the Liberal climate agenda since 2015 has also been “ground-breaking,” in many ways, wrote Hadrian Mertins-Kirkwood, senior researcher with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, in a chapter of a book about Trudeau’s record published by the think tank in October.

“Trudeau made climate change a far greater priority than any previous government, and his Liberals implemented genuine emission-reducing policies that are starting to bear fruit,” he wrote. “Unfortunately, all this apparent progress is still too little given the scale and urgency of the climate crisis.

Far from being wound down as climate science requires, many companies in the oil and gas industry are increasing production next year. 

“Trudeau’s reluctance to tackle Canada’s fossil fuel supply, the country’s largest source of emissions, may yet prove to be the most enduring feature of his time in office,” Mertins-Kirkwood said.

Guilbeault says this year the government has launched critical climate and environment initiatives, and finetuned existing ones, amidst a challenging political context.

Guilbeault didn’t name the election of Donald Trump directly, but appeared to acknowledge the threat he poses to climate efforts. 

“The international context has been very difficult, and frankly is going to get even more difficult in the coming years,” he said. “So we all have to buckle up because it's going to be hard. It's going to be really hard.”

Durable accomplishments

On the year’s accomplishments, Guilbeault points to tabling draft regulations for a cap on oil and gas pollution, the latest national inventory report showing emissions declined from 2022 to 2023, and finalizing clean electricity regulations, which he says are at the heart of the country’s decarbonization strategy. 

On Indigenous-led conservation, he said he was “frankly proud” of the work being done, including $375 million announced for a conservation project in the Northwest Territories, $335 million in total funding for conservation in the Great Bear Sea, and the co-creation of the Pituamkek national park in Prince Edward Island with the Mi’kmawey Kapmnt Ta’n Nikana’tu’tij Epekwitnewaq Mi’kmaw-Saqmaq — the Mi’kmaw Nation Government of Prince Edward Island. 

“We've done other conservation initiatives in the past few years with Indigenous Peoples, but this is the first national park that is co-created, which is something I'm very proud of,” he said. 

Guilbeault believes the parks would survive a Conservative win.

“I see them destroying a lot of things, [but] I don't think they would dismember national parks for example, or tear up agreements we have with first nations for Indigenous protected and conserved areas,” he said. “They can't take away from us the fact we helped the world come together in Montreal to protect 30 per cent of our lands and oceans by 2030.”

Axe the tax

If conservation is relatively safe, policies aimed at curbing greenhouse gas emissions are not. This year saw Poilievre successfully use the carbon price to drive a wedge between the Liberals and NDP, leading to the collapse of their supply-and-confidence agreement, and has transformed “axe the tax” into a rallying call for his base. 

Liberals have attempted to defend the policy using carbon contracts for difference (which would impose a financial cost on a future government repealing the carbon price for breaking the contract), as well as rhetorical and public messaging shifts. 

For instance, this year the federal government rebranded the rebates most Canadians receive from the carbon price, and worked with banks to ensure the Canada Carbon Rebate was clearly labelled in peoples’ accounts. But the tax is widely unpopular and Guilbeault acknowledged there is still division in the Liberal caucus over the policy. 

Last year, surrounded by the Liberals’ Atlantic caucus, Trudeau announced that home heating oil, predominantly used in Atlantic Canada, would be exempted from the carbon price. It was a move intended to appease Atlantic MPs who were feeling pressure from unhappy constituents. But it sparked backlash as other regions sought their own exemptions. 

Those who argued in favour of the carveout would say it helped lower the temperature on the issue, Guilbeault said — but he sees it differently. “I would argue what has brought the temperature down is the fact we changed the way we communicate.”

Keith Stewart, senior strategist with Greenpeace Canada, said the key to enduring climate policies is to make them difficult to undo. 

“If I'd had my druthers they never would have made carbon pricing the centrepiece of their strategy because it's leading with your chin politically,” he said. “They spent a lot of political capital, and [the carbon price] has had an impact, but so have their other policies they brought in.”

Stewart pointed to the Ontario government’s decision to establish the Greenbelt nearly 20 years ago. Officials in the Dalton McGuinty government knew it can be easy to undo a previous government’s work, and mounted a preemptive defence. So, they set up the Greenbelt Foundation to defend the area and help popularize it with people in the Greater Toronto Area. 

“[Ontario Premier Doug] Ford keeps taking a run at it and losing,” he said. “He's lost a bunch of times and had to backtrack because they actually built strong enough defences around it… they made people love the freaking Greenbelt.”

Trudeau recruited Guilbeault to run for the Liberals in 2019, and while Guilbeault said he wouldn’t speculate on the future of the prime minister, what he could say is that Trudeau has had his back. Pointing to Trudeau’s support for the carbon price, the cap on oil and gas pollution, and hosting the UN biodiversity summit with China in Montreal, Guilbeault said he’s felt supported by the prime minister even when it’s politically difficult. 

If Trudeau were to be replaced as leader, it is unclear if Guilbeault would retain his post as environment minister. 

“I've been very clear from the beginning that I was coming into politics to work on climate and environmental issues,” he said. 

“I want to continue. This has been my life's work, and my life's passion. I will continue working on that one way or another.”