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Alberta Premier Danielle Smith’s visit to Trump's imperial court at Mar-a-Lago hearkens back to the history of empires. It recalls historical posturing and diplomacy that appeased King Louis XIV at Versailles or the Caesars of Rome.
That comparison rings true for Fen Hampson, a political science professor at Carleton University and co-chair of an expert group on U.S.-Canada relations. Hampson said Donald Trump is weaponizing the American empire while “behaving like a very bad emperor” by threatening his allies.
For that reason, Hampson defends Smith’s recent visit to Mar-a-Lago as in the interest of Canada, Alberta, and the oil and gas industry. Canada’s energy plays a massive role in exports to the U.S. (28 per cent of exports to the U.S. in 2023 were energy products, according to the most recent annual review from Statistics Canada) and is the crux of Canada’s economy. In 2023, around 60 per cent of U.S. crude oil imports were from Canada. Tariffs, which are a federal tax on imports, are paid by American consumers, and would change the cost of Canadian imports relative to American products.
“Trump has never, at the best of times, shown a profound understanding of the basic laws of economics and supply and demand, and so, I can think of no better person than Premier Smith of Alberta, who is an excellent communicator to deliver that message,” Hampson said.
“What is good for Alberta is good for Canada in the sense of sending a strong message that we're a trusted and secured supplier,” he added.
Hampson has become increasingly concerned about heightened rhetoric from the Canadian side, pointing toward Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly's openness to cutting off energy exports to the American market. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh on Monday also called on the federal government to cut off Canada’s critical mineral supply to the U.S. if Trump makes good on his tariffs. That, too, is dangerous, Hampson said.
Pierre Polievere, surrounded by 13 Canadian flags, spoke about the importance of explaining the harm American tariffs would do to different sectors of the U.S. economy.
“The Americans, our friends, want Canadian oil, not Venezuelan, not Iranian, not other dirty dictator oil from around the world,” he said at a press conference last Thursday. “These are the arguments a strong prime minister would be making.”
In a statement to Canada’s National Observer, deputy Conservative leader Melissa Lantsman argued Canada’s negotiation power has been weakened by what she calls the NDP and Liberals’ “radical ‘keep it in the ground keep it in the ground’ lunacy,” when it comes to critical minerals and oil and gas.
“Canadians need a carbon tax election now, so they can elect a prime minister with the brains and backbone to put Canada first,” the statement said.
From a domestic perspective, strong rhetoric may play well on the campaign trail, but it could end in catastrophe. Hampson cautioned against further escalations that could cause disruptions in the energy sector. It leaves infrastructure vulnerable, like Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline, which bypasses Michigan to transport Alberta crude to the heart of Ontario’s oil and petrochemical industry in Sarnia.
“Trump and a Democratic governor might find a common cause,” Hampson said with a chuckle of disbelief. “Line 5 could become [a] hostage.”
Others were not so confident that Smith’s visit would help the country. NDP foreign affairs critic and Edmonton-Strathcona MP Heather McPherson called Smith’s visit an embarrassment. The visit included photo-ops with Canadian-American right-wing media darlings, Jordan Peterson and Kevin O’Leary, and described the tone of the visit as Smith bending down to kiss the ring. She echoed Singh’s belief that bullies respond to strength, not capitulation.
McPherson blames the Liberals’ dysfunction and leadership crisis for leaving Canadians with a leadership vacuum and no common strategy or defender. Having Canadian premiers play good-cop-bad-cop likely won’t work with Trump, she said. She noted that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was laughed out of Mar-a-Lago as governor of the 51st state following his dinner with Trump, and said she expects Smith is unlikely to garner special treatment.
Another political expert sees the premiers’ fractured approach as a direct result of an enfeebled federal government. Greg Anderson, political science professor at the University of Alberta, says the vocal, ad hoc actions by Canadian premiers might be the start of a new period of sub-federal activism, as premiers increasingly fill the power vacuum left in Ottawa.
Historically, sub-federal activism has been directed at a domestic audience, with premiers defending the voters’ interest in their regions. However, such an approach has limitations internationally because premiers’ priorities are inherently regional — and it can drive a wedge in Canadian federalism and create discord in the “Team Canada” locker room.
“I'm not 100 per cent sure why somebody with less influence, a sub-national leader, would think that there would be a different outcome for her [than for the prime minister],” McPherson said. “If I was any of the premiers, I would be pretty appalled at her behavior and her failure to recognize the strongest solution is for us to work together.”
Instead of cozying up to Trump at a province-by-province level, McPherson says Canada should take the opportunity to strengthen trade relationships with Europe, countries in the burgeoning African continent and Latin America (including potential bilateral agreements with Mexico).
Hampson’s solution to the looming trade war is to stave off anything that could endanger Canadian producers. He said Canada needs a strategic response, hitting sectors like tourism or commodities like orange juice that would harm Republican strongholds like Florida, where many of Trump’s key advisors and supporters reside.
There is also an opportunity to target the tech sector, following the pivot by tech moguls, like Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg, to become some of Trump’s biggest supporters, Hampson said.
“This is asymmetrical warfare. We’ve got to be smart. We’ve got to work together. But I don't see it happening, unfortunately,” Hampson said.
Trudeau, alongside his new right-hand Dominic LeBlanc, hopes to smooth out Canada’s strategy on Wednesday. The prime minister will meet with Canadian premiers to discuss a U.S.-Canada strategy moving forward, but it's unclear if unity will prevail given Trudeau’s fleeting hold on power and the Liberals' existential election looming.
The NDP has called for a more expansive Team Canada “jobs war room,” which would include business, union and other civil society leaders.
Matteo Cimellaro / Canada’s National Observer / Local Journalism Initiative
Comments
Why is Kevin O'Leary there representing the government? Way too many non-government hacks sticking their nose into government business. Danielle Smith is only there to speak for the oil & gas industry as premier, not for Canada as a whole.
Let's also keep in mind that the Orange Sphincter is a narcistic, self-serving wannabe dictator, who wants attention 24/7 and people kissing his feet and butt. All this garbage that he has been spewing is a way to get attention mostly, than anything to do with making America great again. If anything, the next four years will be the same old Orange Sphincter lining his pockets at the expense of his supporters.
You would figure Americans would have figured out that he did nothing in the first four years other than corruption and enriching himself and his buddies. During COVID, he did nothing and couldn't care if you died from it.
The rest fo the BS with Canada as a 51st state, Greenland and Panama is just another way to garner attention. Short of taking military action, none of these countries will allow the Orange Sphincter to just walk in and take over. If he does try miliatry action, he can expect these nations will fight back with the support of the rest of the world behind these counties.
It is time the rest of the world work together with trade and if the USA wants to play games, just tell the USA to stick it where the sun doesn't shine. Countries surely are getting tired of lunatic USA presidents running amok with ZERO common sense.
I doubt other democratic countries will step in to support one democratic country fighting back militarily with the US. Instead, there will be plenty of expressions of concern, perhaps even a symbolic sanction or two.
It's all noise and no signal. The US Congress is where the firey, undemocratic and frankly immature attack dog tendencies in any president will be hosed down. Trump is hated there not just by elected Democrats, but also by enough non-MAGA Republicans to check that kind of power.
In addition, the USA has an economy with 320 million people, whereas the EU's spreads across 450 million. The EU is a great trade counterweight to US economic imperialism, though it is also far more bureaucratic and slow.
So by all means, Canada should strengthen its economic ties to its non-US democratic allies.
Too bad that Hampson out of Cartoon U doesn t seem to know that appeasement doesn t work with a bully.
Right on, he only sees it as weakness and the more the Premieres visit him separately the more he sees his strategy working. We should be looking at reducing energy exports, that is the only thing that will get his attention. Other than that, I would be working with Mexico and the rest of the world to formulate both stronger trade ties and punishing tariffs that hit where it hurts.
isn't that literally the definition of treason? Smith as a non-federal elected politician discussing federal matters with another counties head of state?
It's not the first time Smith acted directly against a federal role. She also publicly called on MAGA talking heads to attack Trudeau online.
Oil and gas world demand is on the cusp of peaking and renewables are breaking down the back door, and the nation's central fossil fuel producer has a leader purposely dividing the nation over extremely generous federal oil and gas subsidy largesse in the guise of partisan political stances.
Interesting.