Good morning,
Political gridlock is a killer.
It threatens key climate policies at a time when major international negotiations to deal with the triple threat of climate change, collapsing biodiversity and plastic pollution kick off. With Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future on shaky ground and the Liberals’ alliances with the NDP and Bloc Quebecois in trouble, federal politics in Canada is in chaos at this crucial juncture.
But here is what’s really dragging things down. For those who may have missed it (and don’t worry if you did, a recent Leger poll found over half of Canadians haven’t heard about this), the House of Commons has been dragged to a standstill in recent weeks thanks to a Conservative motion to investigate what they’ve dubbed a Liberal controlled “green slush fund.” I wrote about this back in June, but the issue has certainly reared its head again. The Conservative motion is considered “privileged,” meaning it takes priority over other government business until settled. Liberals could introduce a motion of their own to get around this political hurdle, but because it's a minority government, would need the support of another party.
That support is hard to come by these days. Trudeau is dealing with a caucus revolt, it’s been about two months since the NDP cut their ties with the Liberals and have assumed a fresh oppositional posture, the Bloc is threatening to bring the government down if Liberals don’t cave to demands by Oct. 29 and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are still riding high in the polls.
This is a dumpster fire.
Getting lost in the mayhem is a clear list of important policies that will help decide the path forward for the country’s emission reduction and nature protection goals in the years to come. My colleague Natasha Bulowski broke down a few of the key policies Liberals have committed to passing, warning the party is running out of time.
With U.N. negotiations on biodiversity (called COP16) currently underway in Cali, Colombia, I want to start with the Nature Accountability Act. This is a piece of legislation introduced in June that would require the environment minister to establish biodiversity protection strategies and action plans. For what it’s worth, Canada already has a 2030 biodiversity strategy, but the accountability act would make this a legal obligation for environment ministers going forward.
Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault told me he wants to see this act passed and is trying to work with the NDP to make it happen. The NDP’s environment critic Laurel Collins, however, told me the party is willing to work on strengthening the act but won’t pass it in its present form.
This strikes me as another potential stalemate (and I’ve no major problem with stalemates if they result in better policy). But with the threat of an election looming large in every MP’s mind, time may run out to strengthen the act before the House falls. If it can’t be strengthened, should a weaker policy be made law? It’s an uncomfortable tradeoff and it’s sad to think we may now be in the triage era of Trudeau’s tenure — scrambling to get things over the line before the writ drops.
This jumble could also jeopardize the long awaited emissions cap which is expected soon. Long time readers may remember CNO’s coverage of this proposed policy. We were in Glasgow when Trudeau boasted to the world at COP26 Canada would pursue a cap on oil and gas emissions. We were in Dubai for COP28 when the federal government unveiled new details to its plan. And given this policy is the trophy Trudeau’s government wants to show off at high-profile international summits, we can expect an announcement soon as the diplomatic season gets into full swing. (The COP16 biodiversity negotiations are underway until Nov. 1; the climate change negotiations, called COP29 begin on Nov. 11 In Azerbaijan, and the final round of negotiations for a global plastics treaty start on Dec. 1 in South Korea).
Canada’s influence in these international negotiations has grown in recent years, but thanks to the domestic political turmoil (and a series of self-inflicted wounds), it’s unclear what type of presence the country will even have this year.
The next few months promise to be chaotic. I’m not seeing any sign that anything will calm down. And for better or worse, we’re all in it together.
Have a great weekend,
— John Woodside - CNO’s senior Ottawa reporter
Top story
In recent years Canada has built significant influence in international climate change, nature and plastics treaty negotiations. But as political chaos at home drags Trudeau down, the country’s goals are now at risk of dying on the vine.
John Woodside reports.
Number of the Week
MORE CNO READS
👍🏻👍🏾Two thumbs up for this idea. You’ve probably noticed that appliances and laptops don’t have the lifespan they once did. An environmental group Équiterre certainly has and says Canada needs a mandatory durability index to assign grades to appliances. The index would rate products based on their lifespans and how easy they are to repair. Armed with that information, consumers could make better choices and the pressure would be on companies to up their game. Bravo.
Cloe Logan reports
📗Brace yourself, B.C. voters. There could be another round of electoral reform negotiations and referendums in your future. If the current election results hold, the two newly elected Green Party MLAs will wield the balance of power and be well placed to barter for their way on issues near and dear to their hearts with whichever team they opt to side with. It’s more likely to be the NDP, who are currently leading by one seat, than the Conservatives. So what would the Greens want? Well, they are among the few parties still keen on a consumer carbon tax and would love to shut down future liquified natural gas projects in their tracks. But the real prize would be electoral reform to get them a seat count that better reflects their percentage of the vote.
David Moscrop writes.
👩Susan Holt, the first woman to become premier of New Brunswick, will likely be more accepting of federal climate policy than her predecessor, the political pundits predict. Holt’s Liberals trounced the incumbent Progressive Conservative government Monday night. Her government will probably be less combative than the last regime which griped incessantly about the federal carbon tax and clean energy transition mandates. In the past, Holt has defended the moratorium on fracking and criticized the Progressive Conservatives for looking in the “rearview mirror” when it comes to the province’s energy future.
Cloe Logan reports
🏠Something to consider if you are thinking about adding solar panels to your home — you might want to hold off until you need a new roof. Firstly, government subsidies designed to encourage homeowners to make the switch don’t typically apply to underlying problems with roofs, which have a limited lifespan. Even if they did, it probably doesn’t make sense to pay to have panels installed for a roof partway through its lifespan, because they will need to be removed and reinstalled once the roof expires. Good news you can use here.
Tik Root reports for Grist, a Climate Desk collaborator