The doctors have our test results back and they’d like a word. January’s results show we’ve just lived through the first year-long breach of 1.5 C.
"2024 starts with another record-breaking month — not only is it the warmest January on record but we have also just experienced a 12-month period of more than 1.5 C above the pre-industrial reference period,” summarized Samantha Burgess, deputy director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
“Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are the only way to stop global temperatures increasing,” says the doc.
We’ve been on an unnerving temperature trajectory for eight months now, since last June when temperatures departed from the expected course of steady global heating and veered up on a new, higher path well above anything we’ve ever experienced.
Last month was the hottest January on record and the eighth month in a row to set a record for its respective month of the year. January was a full 1.66 C hotter than pre-industrial temperatures, according to Copernicus.
This streak of record-setting months means the average rise in temperature is now above 1.5 C over the past 12 months.
(If you’ve found your way to a newsletter titled Zero Carbon, you probably understand the significance of that 1.5 figure, both for climate impacts and the pledges made under the Paris Agreement. Still, I feel duty bound to clarify that a one year average doesn’t mean failure on the Paris goal — those pledges refer to temperature averaged over decades.)
The medical team is keeping a particularly wary eye on results coming in from the Earth’s oceans. It appears that El Niño is weakening but marine air temperatures remain “unusually high.” (The technical term for “bonkers.”)
You’re probably getting used to these spaghetti charts that Copernicus produces: the mess of faded noodles at the bottom shows each year since 1979, chaotic but steadily warming. The chart helpfully highlights 2015 and 2016 as well so we get a good look at the last strong El Niño.
Above all the spaghetti, you can’t miss 2023 veering up on its own higher trajectory and the beginnings of 2024, which is … “unusually high.”
It isn’t just “unusually high” for sea surface temperatures. In the early days of February, we already “reached new absolute records.” Translation: the hottest global sea surface temperatures ever recorded. And, as you can tell from the visual, at a very early point in the annual cycle.
The new head of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says it looks like global heating is speeding up. “We have a trend that is really worrying,” secretary general Celeste Saulo told The Associated Press. In her first interview since taking the top job, Saulo waded into the scientific debate about whether we’re experiencing an acceleration in global warming, saying the WMO’s research points to acceleration.
“We are not there in terms of our scientific understanding of the implications of this acceleration. We don't fully understand how it is going to evolve,” Saulo said.
It’s much easier to identify why climate action is lagging, she said. It’s “not about diplomacy, I think it's about power and economy. We are lagging behind our objectives because of our interests — economic interests — that are well beyond what our common sense, our diplomats and our scientists are pointing out.”
