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Talking fire
I was stymied from getting to work on a rooftop fire protection system this week — by rain. Glorious buckets of it. Visibly welcomed by all members of the plant and animal kingdoms, not least the volunteers that make up our local fire department.
So far, it’s been a relatively subdued fire season across Canada. Let’s emphasize “so far.” The renowned fire expert Mike Flannigan cautions that “July is the month when we usually see the most fire and things could turn around… The fire season will depend on the day-to-day weather and ignitions.”
Nationally speaking, our status is a green-hued Level 2 according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre. Firefighters are mostly in their home provinces instead of scrambling across the country to help one another, and the amount of scorched land is below average, so far. Year-to-date, it’s about one-tenth of last year’s horrendous conflagration.
The post-mortems on 2023 are still being published. The latest study finds that last year’s fires “pumped more heat-trapping carbon dioxide into the air than India did by burning fossil fuels.” The researchers figure the fires spewed about 3 billion tonnes of heat-trapping carbon dioxide — four times the carbon emissions of the entire world’s airplane fleet.
If this year does turn out less fiery, that shouldn’t be a surprise. Flannigan told me he anticipates “more fire with climate change as warmer temperatures mean longer fire seasons, more lightning and drier fuels.” But 2023 was so “record-smashing, off the charts” that he expects “even with climate change, years like 2023 will be exceedingly rare.” Let’s hope he’s right — mathematically-speaking it would take just 19 more fire seasons to burn every tree in Canada at that rate.
Nowadays, even a relatively modest month causes havoc. You probably heard the maximum-security prison in Quebec, infamous for holding Canada’s most notorious murderers, had to be evacuated, along with the residents of Port-Cartier. People have been evacuated from the Yukon and Northeastern B.C. to Eastern Quebec and Labrador.
Northern landscapes are getting the full Pyrocene blast elsewhere — for the third time in five years, high-intensity fires are sweeping through the Russian Arctic. These are a "growing monster of climate change," says Guillermo Rein, Professor of Fire Science at Imperial College London.
“A decade ago, Arctic wildfires were considered rare events, hardly ever studied. Now they are happening in all (summers).”
A few weeks ago, over 2,300 people rallied to battle a fire in southwest China’s Yunnan province. Turkey and Greece have been fighting fires in 40-degree temperatures and gale-force winds. Several people have died, hundreds of farm animals and uncountable numbers of wildlife. Nepal has had more than 4,500 fires this year already.
It’s surprisingly complicated to get a clear global picture of what’s going on. As the deniers on social media will happily inform you, the total area burned on Earth may actually be declining. But that’s largely because crop-waste burning in tropical regions gets lumped into the global numbers.
If you focus on the kind of fires we’re worried about — the extreme fires — it’s clear that climate change is driving an exponential increase. A seven-fold increase in the number of extreme fires in the boreal forests of Canada and Europe over the past 20 years. Over 10 times more in temperate conifer forests like the western US and the Mediterranean.
Across the globe, extreme fire is more than twice as frequent, more than twice as intense since 2003. “Those classified as extreme in recent years, released twice the energy of those… at the start of the studied period,” say the authors of new research just published in the journal Nature Ecology & Evolution, which used data from Nasa satellites.
“The fingerprints of climate change are all over this rise,” said Calum Cunningham who led the study. “This is the effect of what we’re doing to the atmosphere, so action is urgent.”
There’s no avoiding the Pyrocene. So, it’s worth knowing how to talk about it in ways that spark that urgency and action.
And we’ve already hit the overarching message — these are “unnatural disasters.” Climate change turns fires into mega-fires.
That’s the “what.” The “why” is fossil fuels. Burning oil, gas and coal accounts for 91 per cent of heat-trapping carbon pollution. But only 11 per cent of news stories about climate change mention fossil fuels, even in passing.
No wonder most people think about recycling when they think about tackling climate change — if you don’t understand the cause of a problem, you won’t aim at it. Use simple language, advises Re.Climate: “fires will keep getting worse until we stop burning fossil fuels.”
And then, the pathway reveals itself: we need to regulate fossil fuel pollution and hold big polluters accountable.
The organization provides a “message triangle” in it’s Wildfires and “Un-natural” Disasters tip sheet, to help us remember the key points proven to drive up public engagement.
You’re going to run into a few forms of pushback. One of the most widespread is that it’s a big, global problem and Canada is a small part of the world population. Our carbon taxes won’t stop the fires. And it’s important to acknowledge that’s true. Which is why the most advanced economies like Canada all need to regulate pollution if there’s any chance of the world acting together.
Every tonne of fossil fuel pollution matters and Canada is a big source of it: one of the Top-10 countries in the world for climate pollution, seventh for per-capita emissions. What’s more, every other G7 country, including the U.S., has been cutting climate pollution while Canada has (maybe) just begun to bend the curve — and even that is only if you don’t count the fossil fuels we export to be burned elsewhere. We have work to do just to catch up to our peers.
You’ll run into more nefarious arguments as well, from the unhinged (Jewish space lasers, secret energy pulse weapons) to the depraved (fires set by the Trudeau Liberals or climate activists as false flag operations).
On the far-right, there’s a growing narrative of “climate authoritarianism,” says Chris Russill, an expert on disinformation at Carleton University. "You see a real blurring of pandemic emergency and climate emergency as overstated, fabricated or false, and used as a pretext to get people to sign on for policies that would extend state control."
The hinge pin for disinformation is arson. And you hear it not only from the putrid corners of the internet, but even from political leaders desperate to keep the public penny from dropping about fossil fuels.
Experts like Russill will tell you that the best debunking is a pre-bunking (immunizing your audience against a falsehood by exposing them to it alongside the evidence to the contrary). Sadly, certain Prairie premiers and Prime Ministerial hopefuls have put us past that point. But you will probably need to do some debunking. And the best approach for that is a “truth sandwich” — instead of repeating the disinformation up front, lead with the truth. Then, describe the disinformation. Seed doubt about its source and fact-check. Then repeat the truth.
Climate change is turning fires into mega-fires. All fires start with some kind of ignition and 93 per cent of the area burned in Canada last year was caused by lightning. Seven per cent by human-ignition. Climate change is turning fires into mega-fires.
Some people have heard about arson so frequently, they may be suspicious of that small number, so it’s worth knowing the nuance between number of fires and area burned: human ignition started 40 per cent of the 6,700 fires in 2023 but they resulted in a vastly smaller area burned than the 59 per cent of fires caused by lightning.
In fact, most human ignition is accidental — ATVs, campfires, cigarette butts — and Mike Flannigan says the number has been decreasing due to education and fire bans.
If the general advice sounds familiar, that’s because the same principles apply to heat waves, super storms and other climate disasters. There are thousands of things you could say but groups like Re. Climate and Potential Energy have tested them thousands of times on social media and in focus groups to winnow out the ones that give the most “lift.”
“Unnatural disasters” is twice as effective at focusing minds on fossil fuels than calling it “extreme weather,” for example.
And there are a couple other key points that emerge. One is the crucial role of images and video. You might think fires would burn through the lens but it’s actually difficult to capture human suffering and scale simultaneously. Smoky skylines, blazing mountainsides and lines of evacuating vehicles don’t have the same impact as respiratory distress, homes lost and people helping people in evacuation centres.
Nor are the trusted sources of information quite as straightforward as expected. People trust scientists and doctors. But they’re thinking about people with dirt on their hands and soot on their face. “It’s more like the front line kind of scientist: firefighters,” explained one focus group participant.
The same kind of frontline role holds for the kind “scientists” trusted on fossil fuel replacements as well: “People that are trying to develop things for green energy. I guess those are scientists too,” said another participant representing the general sentiment.
That’s enough about the tools of fire talk for one newsletter. Let’s touch briefly on some other topics…
More resources for grief
Stephanie Olsen is a Masters student at the University of Alberta focused on the mental health impacts of climate change. She describes her personal experience grappling with climate grief through Refugia Retreats as “transformative.”
I have to admit I’d never heard of the organization and there’s something heartening about knowing there’s just too much good work out there to keep track of. Even (especially?) behind Alberta’s fossil facade. Olsen has since become a facilitator for the Refugia Retreats, running workshops and retreats addressing ecological grief, climate grief, and eco-anxiety while hosting a monthly group in Calgary inspired by Joanna Macy’s The Work That Reconnects.
Melting Lincoln
The heat in Washington D.C. was too much for honest Abe. The replica of the famous DC landmark was installed at a school and built from a kind of wax designed for temperatures up to 140°F. But the heat wave was too much.
How wildfires expose Canada's climate disinformation problem
“Social media lubricates the spread of false and misleading information in times of crisis.” Marc Fawcett-Atkinson has the story: “Beyond hindering evacuation efforts and emergency response, disinformation about the wildfires helped fuel opposition to climate policies.”
Elsewhere in Canada’s National Observer, we learn that:
The Crown corporation Export Development Canada will finance up to $500 million for a First Nation-led LNG project in British Columbia. EDC said it will provide a loan to Cedar LNG, based in Kitimat, reports Matteo Cimellaro.
Ontario will spend $1 billion to refurbish eight hydroelectric generating stations. The province says the refurbishment will generate an addition 100 gigawatt hours annually.
Canada’s most valuable commercial shellfish stocks — such as Iobsters, scallops and snow crabs — will be hit hardest if emissions don’t fall drastically, according to a new study.
Alberta’s energy regulator projects oilsands production will grow by more than 17 per cent by 2033.
Big Oil's fierce pushback against new truth-in-advertising rules gets unpacked by John Woodside and Jeremy Appel writes that the Pathways Alliance knows it can’t back up its claims.
“For young people in this country, including myself, the environment is not just a policy issue; it is a matter of life and death. That is not hyperbole,” writes 15-year old Jaden Braves who founded Young Politicians of Canada to take political action to fight for the planet.
Take it from Deloitte: Carbon capture is a terrible investment, writes Ross Belot. The retired senior manager from one of Canada’s largest fossil fuel companies says “oil industry carbon capture investments make no economic sense under any scenario. Canada should not invest public money in that exercise and let the oil industry sink or swim. If the industry decides not to invest, it’s because they are good at reading the tea leaves.”
The disruptors
Member of Last Generation Canada were arrested for disrupting the Blue Jays game at Rogers Centre.
For the record, the Jays went on to beat the Yankees. And six protestors disrupted the PGA Tour's Travelers Championship in New York, storming the 18th green, spraying white and red powder before getting tackled by police.
“This is so much more grave than people recognize,” said Jeff Marsar, one of the activists who disrupted the event. “If we don’t act now, we won’t be able to play golf in the future, and that’s the least of it. We aren’t fear-mongering; these things are already happening all around us, every single day. It’s not a matter of prevention; it’s too late for that. We are struggling to reduce the harm and put out the fires.”
Olympic opposition
A group of Olympians are demanding the end to fossil fuel sponsorships in sport as well as new rules and protection from heat. The athletes joined with scientists to produce Rings of Fire: Heat Risks at the 2024 Paris Olympics.
“We need to transition away from fossil fuels as quickly as possible,” said Jamie Farndale, a rugby sevens player for Great Britain, at a press conference. “It’s as simple as that.”
Investigating influence
British Columbia’s attorney general called for an investigation after The Narwhal published leaked audio recordings of a TC Energy (formerly TransCanada) executive. The executive boasted the company had “dramatically” weakened provincial energy policies, ghostwritten briefings for “ministers and premiers and prime ministers” and shifted the position of Premier David Eby who has been hedging his earlier position that it’s impossible to expand LNG and other fossil fuel production and meet climate goals.
The executive, Liam Iliffe, was a former advisor to premier John Horgan and joined TC Energy less than a year after leaving government. He resigned earlier this month after the company was approached for comment.
A tax on ‘emissions’
Denmark has finalized plans to tax methane from belching and farting livestock. The agreement follows months of negotiations between farmers, politicians and environmental groups. Farmers will have to pay for planet-heating emissions but the revenues will be pooled in a fund to support green initiatives in the sector.
“This is a historic compromise that sets a completely new direction for land use,” said Maria Reumert Gjerding, president of the Danish Society for Nature Conservation. “Despite major disagreements, we have managed to reach a compromise on a carbon tax that paves the way for a transformed food industry.”
It’s a rare moment of agreement on policies for the future of agriculture. Angry farmers have protested in European capitals several times this year, forcing the EU to weaken rules for cleaning up the sector. And just last week, New Zealand scrapped plans for a tax on agricultural emissions.
Coral in peril
“At least 97% of corals on a reef in the Great Barrier Reef’s north died during (Australia’s summer),” reports The Guardian.
“I was horrified,” said Macquarie University marine biologist Prof Jane Williamson, who analyzed the mass coral death at Lizard Island. “We came out of the water and didn’t know what to say. It’s an iconic reef and most of it was dead.”
The Marine Park Authority will release updates on the state of the broader Great Barrier Reef later this year.
Count the burn
Climate campaigners are claiming a “huge win in the fight for a livable climate” after the U.K. Supreme Court pooh poohed claims of “net zero” oil and gas. The court ruled that fossil fuel projects must be assessed on their full climate impact, not just the emissions from getting oil and gas out of the ground.
“The whole purpose of extracting fossil fuels is to make hydrocarbons available for combustion,” the judges wrote. “It can therefore be said with virtual certainty that, once oil has been extracted from the ground, the carbon contained within it will sooner or later be released into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide and so will contribute to global warming.”
The building design that could crack the code
We shouldn’t just focus on whiz-bang technologies — some solutions are as simple as staircase design. “Canada doesn't just need more housing, but homes that consider density, affordability, livability, and climate change,” reports Cloe Logan.
Warming oceans warping the world
I’ll leave you with the latest by David Wallace-Wells. How could I not share an article that begins with the Greenland shark - surely the coolest animal alive. Not only alive, but lives beyond 250 years — some researchers estimate 500 years (!) — probably, in part, because of an extremely slow metabolism in a frigid cool habitat, but no one really knows.
You might have heard of Wallace-Wells as the author of The Uninhabitable Earth and he writes a weekly column for The New York Times. The latest is How ocean warming is warping the world (gift link).
“The world’s longest-living vertebrate is not the friendly giant tortoise, the breathtaking blue whale or the saltwater crocodile,” writes Wallace-Wells.
“It’s the shuddersome, floppy Greenland shark, which can live to 300, perhaps even longer, its life span slowed and distended by the deep cold of the northern oceans. Greenland sharks do not even reach sexual maturity until about age 150, which means that today there are, swimming slowly through the waters of the far North Atlantic, the equivalent of preteenagers born not long after the 19th-century heyday of New England whaling, as the Industrial Revolution was just metastasizing beyond the Anglosphere. Since then, measured by weight, 90 percent of the largest creatures sharing the oceans with them have disappeared.”
“This is not just a parable about the warming of the seas… But the story of that warming is nevertheless astonishing, even for those of us anesthetized by exposure to the world’s rapid ecological transformation….”