With the U.S. election now decided, what does the outcome – a re-elected Donald Trump and Republican majorities in both chambers of Congress – mean for Canada’s foreign policy and national interests?
The reality is the results are grave for many U.S. allies, including Canada, and bode poorly for international relations over the next four years and beyond. A narrow plurality of American voters have made a choice with impacts that will echo around the world. Far-right figures and movements celebrated, while the U.S.’s democratic allies and partners privately recoiled while offering polite public statements.
Given Trump’s views on issues, such as security and defence, trade and economic policy, multilateral institutions and diplomacy, immigration, climate change and energy, and democratic norms and human rights, we may be about to experience one of the most disruptive periods in the post-Second World War international order. Trump was unprepared to govern in 2017, but the deluge of unqualified and dubious individuals being nominated to senior foreign policy roles in his second administration shows that this time he is moving fast even before returning to office in January.
What this means for Canada remains to be seen, but the federal government is bracing for the worst. The United States, Mexico and Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement, as a product of Trump’s own foreign policy, may survive until its scheduled renewal date in 2026. However, Trump won’t be bound by that agreement (or any other) if it contradicts his wishes, and it’s unlikely Canada will be spared his promised tariffs on foreign goods.
When they come, the free trade renegotiations will likely be rough on Canada, particularly in industries like dairy, agriculture, forestry, and the electric vehicle battery plant investments that have been made in Ontario and Quebec. Trump has vowed to expand U.S. fossil fuel production, driving prices down and undercutting productivity in the Canadian energy sector. Contrary to what many Albertans expect, Trump will likely be bad for Alberta’s economy.
In hopes of avoiding this, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has joined Ontario’s Doug Ford in calling for Canada to abandon free trade with Mexico to appease Trump. These cracks do not bode well for a unified Canadian response to the threats to North American free trade. Economic stress will be heightened further by the impact of Trump’s promised mass deportation of more than 20 million undocumented migrants, which will spur irregular migrants and asylum seekers to flee the U.S. for Canada, as we experienced during his first term. While there will be some opportunities to attract skilled immigrants to Canada as a result, the pressure to house and resettle refugees will fuel our current divisive debates over immigration, housing, racism and social services.
Globally, Canada is vulnerable to Trump’s ire because of its reliance on U.S.-led institutions. Trump’s hostility toward NATO and affinity for Russian and Chinese leaders, among other authoritarians, makes continued U.S. support for the war in Ukraine an open question. The likely withdrawal of U.S. aid may be balanced by increased European support, but Trump could pressure Ukraine into a negotiated settlement that cedes to Russia at least some of the territory it has occupied. Trump has also threatened consequences for allies like Canada which have yet to reach NATO’s defence spending target of two per cent of GDP. He could even attempt to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, which would also augur poorly for the future of NORAD as a binational Canada-U.S. joint command for the defence of North America.
Finally, the global effort to combat climate change is about to experience its second Trump shock. The U.S. will almost certainly withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement (again), which will mark the death knell of the multilateral diplomatic process to reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
This is grim, but the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change has also failed in its goals, and many have focused instead on the private sector to encourage electrification and the clean energy transition. The best hope for continued progress in reducing GHGs is twofold: the global market is already too invested in the energy transition, and should the U.S. withdraw from the clean industrial commitments made under the Biden administration, other countries (read: China) will pick up their market share.
Emissions reductions worldwide are being driven by the business case for clean energy. We must hope the power of the market is sufficient to withstand the ideological backlash against lower-carbon energy systems that will be unleashed by the Trump administration, (similar to the anti-market campaign against renewable energy by the UCP government in Alberta).
The short-term reality is that political support for the clean energy transition will suffer, while medium- and longer-term climate change impacts will be increasingly severe due to ongoing high levels of global emissions.
At a recent high-level climate summit in Montreal, policymakers including Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly spoke with an expectation of 2.7 to 3.1 degrees Celsius average global warming by the end of the century. This assessment requires the emissions reduction promised by the Biden administration’s policies, so may now be optimistic. Whatever the prospects of mitigating climate change, the urgency of climate adaptation in terms of how and where we build infrastructure, expand cities, deliver services and support industry will be an unavoidable reality for the rest of our lives.
Worsening climate change impacts, reduced economic growth, a more insecure homeland, and a more unstable international system are the likely Canadian outcomes from the re-election of Trump. The questions now are how bad will the damage be, how will federal and provincial governments respond, and how will it impact the next Canadian election in 2025?
But there is little doubt that Canada’s national interests and foreign policy will be tested by a second Trump administration. Without a cooperative U.S. partner, Canada’s national interests will be threatened, and its capacity to contribute to international peace and security will be greatly reduced.
Will Greaves is an associate professor of international relations at the University of Victoria, British Columbia, where his research examines climate change, security, Canadian foreign policy, and Arctic geopolitics.
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