Germany and the U.K. have cut their climate pollution in half. Here’s how Canada stacks up

Germany, the United Kingdom (U.K.), and Canada have a lot in common. All three crank out an economy that makes the global top 10. All three are members of the elite Group of Seven (G7) advanced industrial nations. And all three have a highly educated workforce.

But when it comes to acting on the planet’s metastasizing climate crisis, our European peers are in a whole different league. To illustrate just how far ahead they are, I’ve charted the climate pollution from all three since 1990.

Germany has cut emissions nearly in half

My first chart starts with 1990 emissions from all three nations. Those are the coloured dots on the left side of the chart. Germany’s emissions since then are shown by the plunging black line.

Germany’s economy is the world’s third- or fourth-largest — more than twice the size of Canada’s. Their population is also more than double ours.

So, it’s not surprising that back in 1990, they also emitted more than twice what we did in Canada.

Since then, however, they’ve cut their climate-destabilizing emissions nearly in half — falling to 673 million tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2) in 2023.

And they aren’t planning to stop there. Last month, the German government announced it is on track to reach its 2030 Paris Agreement climate target — an impressive 65 per cent climate pollution cut from 1990. The target is shown by the grey bull's-eye on the chart.

They are also working to clear a path beyond that to net zero by 2045. For example, last month, they rolled out a new US$25 billion industrial decarbonization plan aimed at some of their hardest to abate emissions.

The U.K. has done even better

The U.K. economy is the world’s sixth largest — one and a half times the size of Canada’s. They also have a lot more citizens than Canada.

So, it’s also not surprising that back in 1990, they also emitted a lot more than we did.

Since then, they’ve cut their emissions by more than half. That’s the falling blue line on the chart. Their latest numbers show a drop to 383 MtCO2 in 2023. That’s a world-leading 53 per cent reduction since 1990. Heck, it’s even less than they emitted a century earlier — in 1880.

The British target for 2030 is even more aggressive than Germany’s — aiming for 68 per cent fewer emissions than in 1990. That’s within sight of net zero, as shown by the blue bull's-eye.

What really jumps out at me on this chart, however, is how consistently both Germany and the U.K. have cut their climate pollution decade after decade. That is a testament to strong policies, hard work and steadfast commitment.

As Canadians have learned the hard way, emissions don’t magically cut themselves.

Canada’s climate leadership?

To see what Canada has done with emissions, I’ve added us to the chart as a red line.

Canada is the world’s 10th-largest economy. We have also been one of the world’s largest climate polluters, both in total and per person.

Way back in 1988, the Canadian government first pledged to cut our supersized emissions. Today, we emit even more, not less — nearly 100 million tonnes more.

In 2022, Canadian emissions rose to 685 MtCO2. That’s according to the most recent estimate available.

I suppose increasing emissions is a form of climate leadership — in a lemmings-off-the-cliff kind of way.

Back in 1990, at the start of the climate action era, the British were more than 200 MtCO2 behind us. They rapidly closed that gap and have since sprinted 300 MtCO2 ahead of us. The Germans were three times further behind us in 1990 —– a whopping 650 MtCO2 gap. But they, too, have closed the gap and are now poised to blow past us.

Looking at this chart, you might wonder where the British and Germans are cutting all those emissions. I was curious. To find out, I dug down one more level into each nation’s official National Inventory Reports (NIRs). Here’s what I found.

Sector by sector breakdown

My next chart shows the climate pollution changes in each economic sector.

Green bars show sectors that reduced emissions since 1990. And the height of each bar indicates the amount reduced.

Red bars show sectors that increased emissions.

As you can quickly see, Germany and the U.K. have cut climate pollution in every sector. So, the short answer to the question of “Where they are cutting emissions?” seems to be “everywhere.”

When you reduce emissions in every sector, all those reductions add up to big numbers. The British efforts add up to cuts of 425 MtCO2; for the Germans, cuts of 526 MtCO2.

In contrast, Canada has increased emissions in most sectors since 1990. These increases also add up. In our case, our climate pollution increases have been more than our decreases. Failing to act effectively across most sectors has allowed our national climate pollution to rise by 98 MtCO2.

Before leaving this chart, there are two more things worth noting.

The first is the role played by Canada’s fossil fuel sector. In the chart’s upper right, you can see their big red bar. It shows that this sector increased emissions the most in Canada. That’s been a major factor in Canada’s climate failure, for sure. But as all those other red bars show, our climate failure runs a lot deeper than one rogue sector. To see why, just picture that chart without the fossil fuel sector’s big red bar on it. Where would Canada’s emissions be then? Yep, still above 1990.

A second takeaway from this chart is how similar the electricity sector’s role has been in all three nations. All three nations relied on their electricity sectors for their biggest emissions cuts. And in all three, those cuts accounted for roughly 40 per cent of national reductions so far. Going forward, however, the electricity sector will play a much smaller role. That’s because decades of decarbonizing it have cleaned up most of its emissions. At this point, the biggest pollution cuts will need to come from other major emitting sectors, like transportation, buildings and industry.

Per person

I’ll wrap up with a chart comparing the emissions per person in all three nations.

The British, shown in blue on the chart, emitted around 14 tonnes of climate pollution (tCO2e) per person back in 1990. Now they emit just six tonnes each.

That’s below the global average of around six and a half tonnes per person.

The Germans cut their per-person climate pollution in half — from 16 tCO2e in 1990 to eight tCO2e today.

Canadians have also cut emissions per person. But not very much. Currently, we emit 18 tCO2 per person each year. That’s nearly three times the global average.

What these charts show clearly is that it has been possible for nations with advanced economies — like Canada, Germany, the U.K., and other G7 nations — to significantly reduce their climate pollution. And as we’ve seen in detail, Germany and the U.K. have been successfully doing it for decades.

But not Canada.

I don’t know about you, but I’ve always believed that Canadians would be out in front, with the other climate leaders, sleeves rolled up, working hard to stop such an existential crisis from spinning out of control.

We should have started 36 years ago when we first made the promise.

But starting now is — by far — the best option we have left.