The Bloc Québécois lost, then regained influence

The end of the supply and confidence agreement between the New Democratic Party and the Liberal Party forces Justin Trudeau to rethink his strategy, but it doesn't mark a break with Canadian parliamentary tradition. 

This is simply the usual order of things for a minority government to seek allies on a piecemeal basis. Justin Trudeau did so in his second term, as did Stephen Harper and Paul Martin before him.

But if the NDP's decision alters the balance of power between the Liberals and the NDP, it also has another important effect: it gives — or more precisely, restores — the influence of the Bloc Québécois.

The Bloc is delighted by this reversal of fortune. Let's be frank: the 44th Parliament has been a challenging one for the Bloc. 

Firstly, the agreement between the Liberals and the New Democrats has prevented the Bloc from exerting any influence on the policies of the Liberal Party. This has allowed the federal government to interfere even more in provincial areas of jurisdiction, which is a source of great frustration for the Bloc. We've seen it in healthcare, immigration, and housing. The Bloc can denounce these interventions at every opportunity, but that is all it can do.

Secondly, the Bloc's strategy of defending the interests of Quebec and Quebecers has been undermined by the premier of Quebec. François Legault has made his displeasure with the Bloc abundantly clear. 

The overwhelming victory of Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec in the 2022 provincial election (90 CAQ MNAs elected out of a total of 125) unequivocally established the premier's legitimacy as the primary representative of Quebecers. Furthermore, he has proven on multiple occasions that he can negotiate with Ottawa without the Bloc. The $750-million agreement reached with the federal government last June to fund the reception of asylum seekers in Quebec is a prime example.

Thirdly, the Bloc cannot use a strategy that is making the Conservatives successful. Pierre Poilievre is acting like a future prime minister. Yves-François Blanchet can't do that, since, of course, Quebec doesn't have enough seats to give him a majority in the House. This means that the Bloc's messages are less heeded by voters who want a change of government.

However, the end of the agreement between the Liberal Party and the NDP has changed all that. The Bloc will now have a greater influence on Liberal policies and will speak more forcefully on behalf of Quebecers.

The Bloc wasted no time in making its demands known. At a recent meeting of his caucus in Montebello, Blanchet made it clear that the Bloc is ready to collaborate with the Liberal Party on a number of issues. Enhancing old age pensions for people aged 65 to 75, increasing the Quebec government's powers in immigration, protecting the French language, defending supply management, extending medical assistance in dying and abolishing the religious exemption for hate propaganda were all specifically identified by the Bloc leader.

In addition, the Bloc Québécois will not support a Conservative confidence motion on the carbon tax and will call for an end to federal investment in fossil fuels. This does not mean that the Bloc would systematically refuse to vote alongside the Conservatives. The Bloc has supported Harper's Conservatives on more than one occasion.

The Bloc's influence is also strengthened by Legault's declining popularity. The Parti Québécois currently dominates the polls in Quebec. Quebecers are not afraid of the question of sovereignty, even if they do not necessarily want Quebec independence. 

There is a clear distinction between voting for a separatist party in an election and supporting Quebec independence in a referendum. Legault's unpopularity, coupled with the Bloc's regained influence, makes Blanchet once again an influential Quebec spokesman.

This raises the question of whether the Bloc will allow the Liberals to stay in office until the fall of 2025. The Bloc does not wish to make a public commitment on this subject. It will support any proposal that is good for Quebec and Quebecers. 

But should we believe them? The Bloc undoubtedly exerts more influence when the government is in a minority situation. Triggering an election that would in all likelihood bring a majority Conservative government to power is therefore not in its best interest.

However, by asserting that he will only give his support if it serves the interests of Quebec and Quebecers, the Bloc leader is simply employing a tactic that has made the Bloc successful since its inception: consistency of message. Knowing that they will never form a government, Bloc leaders can focus their efforts on a single, easily articulated objective that appeals to many Quebecers. 

Blanchet is to be believed when he says that the Bloc will make its decisions solely on the basis of defending the interests of Quebec and Quebecers. It remains to be seen whether the Liberal Party is ready to follow his lead.

Geneviève Tellier is a professor at the School of Political Studies at the University of Ottawa. She regularly comments on Canadian political events in the media (Radio-Canada, Le Droit, CPAC among others).