More young people are being infected with COVID-19, creating the potential for a severe outbreak, scientists warn.
They say the change in demographics could be attributed to lockdown fatigue, increased testing or feelings of invincibility.
Brett Snider, a water resources PhD student at the University of Guelph, first noticed a higher number of infections in the under 20 and 20-29 age groups in the Toronto and Peel regions in May.
Snider's supervisor, Ed McBean, said he was puzzled by rising infections in the under 20 age group because daycares and schools were closed.
"And we thought 'whoa'. The little ones don't tend to get violently ill, but they will bring it home. And if you have multiple generations or even visitors, you get that uptick as a result," said McBean, an engineering professor at the University of Guelph.
While the numbers have stabilized in Peel and Toronto, McBean said there's been an increase in infections in younger people in other parts of the country.
"That's critical because once you start to get an uptick, it can explode very quickly," he said.
McBean said he's especially worried about the increase in infections in the under-20 age group.
Children who may be sick don't usually show symptoms and when they share a space or toys, they might spread the infection to others and then carry it home, he said.
"If we start to see an increase in the younger age category there's no doubt that it'll eventually spread from the parent to the grandparent, and it can have severe impacts on older populations."
McBean said his message for public health officials is to keep daycares and schools closed.
Data from British Columbia, Ontario, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Quebec, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island show an increase in COVID-19 infections in the 20-29 age groups. The figures also show more women are testing positive for COVID-19.
Numbers from the Public Health Agency of Canada show that during the second week of July, the largest proportion of new cases reported — 22 per cent of female cases and 28 per cent of male cases — was among the 20-29 age group.
Since the start of the pandemic, 14 per cent of female cases and 15 per cent of male cases have been up in that age group.
The younger age groups are now making up a higher percentage of positive tests, while older age groups are falling overall, the data show.
A clinical professor at the University of B.C.'s school of population and public health said the increase could be because it's summer and fewer employment opportunities during the pandemic mean more time for young people to spend with friends.
Stephen Hoption Cann said when they get together in larger groups, young people can potentially spread the virus because they may not show symptoms or have a mild infection.
"They have to be cautious in social gatherings, pubs and bars," he said.
"You never really know when you're close to the person who might be infected so you have to be more cautious."
Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Toronto's associate medical officer of health, said health officials have noticed the same trend, noting healthy people either don't show symptoms, have very mild symptoms or they don't know they have COVID-19.
"I think that contributes to potentially, some complacency," she said at a recent news briefing.
While young people may not see the infection as a "big deal," they may pass it on to a person they're close with who has an underlying medical condition, Yaffe said.
B.C. public health officials said early on many long-term care and assisted living facilities were hard hit and now most of the province's new cases are in the broader community.
"We are concerned about the increase in new cases in recent days as COVID-19 continues to silently circulate in our communities," B.C.'s health minister and provincial health officer said recently in a statement.
Another factor for consideration is a larger number of infections among women.
Julia Smith, a research associate at Simon Fraser University's faculty of health sciences, said Canada had a higher proportion of women infected than other countries near the start of the pandemic.
Age and employment may be factors, she said.
Most residents of long-term care homes tend to be women, she noted. Such homes were the first to be hit with COVID-19 in Canada, killing thousands of seniors.
Women also tend to make up a larger share of health-care workers who would have more interactions with patients, putting them at greater risk of infection, Smith said.
McBean said the messaging to maintain safe social distancing and frequent handwashing, wear a mask and get together in small groups outdoors remains the best way to avoid infection.
Keeping the Canada-U.S. border closed for as long as possible would also help prevent external infections from coming into the community, he said.
McBean said provinces need to continue to follow strict protocols to keep the virus contained, and keep the R value below one. The R value or reproduction rate represents the average number of new people who will catch the disease from one infected person.
If R value is less than one, then the epidemic is being brought under control. If R is greater than one, then the epidemic is growing.
"We're on a very fine line as it is right now in Ontario. So, we just have to be very careful in that number doesn't start to creep up again and be above one," McBean said.
McBean said provinces need to continue to follow strict protocols to keep the virus contained.
"Basically, we're doing pretty well," he said. "I mean this is a terribly infective virus and so easily transmitted. It's much worse than the others. This one's pretty bad."
This report by The Canadian Press was first publish July 19, 2020.
Comments
"They say the change in demographics could be attributed to lockdown fatigue, increased testing or feelings of invincibility."
Or it could come from having been released from studying, or working, and summer vacations come around with not much to "do."
The only ppl I've seen in my area not following distancing guidelines have been groups of young people, whose age I'd guess at between 16 and late 20s.
How do I know they weren't family members? It gets kind of obvious in multi-racial, multi-ethnic communities, and sometimes it's clear from half-a-block's-worth of overheard conversation.
Walking around in a small throng, shoulder to shoulder, all within speaking-voice distance of one another. I've wondered at times whether their parents knew, what they'd think if they knew.
And then there are those who park in guest parking or on the street, congregating near the entrance of an apartment building: again, it's clear they're friends partying, some of whom live in the building. "Bubbling" cannot explain it: there are too many.
Here in Toronto, apparently a majority of young people live alone: God knows what they tell themselves to make it OK to potentially expose their friends, and friends' families. Possibly it doesn't enter their minds.
Perhaps they think as long as they, themselves aren't aware of it, their behaviours are harmful.
I find it annoying. The longer that stuff goes on, the longer before it's safe for anyone particularly vulnerable. And while I "qualify" for next-to-zero assistance, I now have no possible income from work, will probably not be able to re-start my little tiny home-based very part-time business as clients will have found other services. The cost of just getting groceries has doubled. I'd be willing to bet some of those kids would feel differently if they realized they are making it so some people won't ever be able to catch up financially again.
If they don't die from it (and the earliest information was that they wouldn't) no matter how strapped they are financially now, they have a whole future in which to recover.
Maybe someone should start telling the young people about the hard times and deprivations earlier generations suffered through, and the amount of self-discipline and shoulder-to-the-wheel it took to just get through.
Let me add that I am very clear it's a minority of people, and a minority of young folk, putting themselves and others in danger, and that people my age did really dumb things when they were young too.
The infection rate is just a distraction. We don't report on the infection rate of seasonal influenza or the common cold.
What is the mortality rate of COVID19? How does it compare to the mortality rate of seasonal flu?
What is the pre-COVID dictionary definition of "pandemic," and why do our governments and controlled media pretend that this is one?
Wake up, Canada! We are being manipulated.
By whom? The One World Left Wing government funded by George Soros? The Establishment Swamp supposedly being drained by Trump? The Conservative Party of Canada? The Andromadeans who brought another strain to Earth? (They even made a movie about that.)
Yes, let's compare COVID to the common flu. Wait a minute, they are two different viruses with infinite ways to manifest themselves in humans, as relevant as comparing elephants to possums.
So let's do the math on other coronaviruses. Yes, most of them are harmless cold viruses, but now and then you get a SARS or a MERS. The Spanish Flu of 1918 was misnamed, according to many published sources, and manifested itself mildly in the first springtime wave. But the second wave in August was deadly. A third wave extended through winter. Perhaps 500 million people (the highest estimated number) were ultimately infected with ~~50 million dead, a ~~10% mortality rate at least. The documentation of the numbers and the health systems analyzing them back then were completely inadequate, making comparison to today difficult.
Yes, let's compare these viruses, but please don't spread the unfounded opinion that society is being manipulated. Let the medical professionals, especially the epidemiologists with prior experience and access to modern science, do the math.
Worldwide, as of yesterday there were over 15.3 million case of COVID infection with the first wave not nearly peaked out in Brazil and the US where the most cases have occurred. So far there have been 625,000 deaths, a rate of over 4%.
In Canada the death rate near the end of the moderately successful effort to flatten the first wave is 7.8%, not that far off from the Spanish Flu rate after three waves. Up to July 22nd people in their 20, 30s, 40s and 50s were almost equally infected, at 14-15% per decade of age for a total of nearly 60% of all cases. The death rates of people in their 70s so far is 18.2%, but people in their 80s are ratcheted up to 72%. The young are easily putting seniors at risk. Immaturity and youth are once again proving deadly.
I don’t have the time to search for numbers on the immunocompromised, but let me say that if you told one of my loved ones with severe asthma that she is being manipulated, she’d knock your teeth out on the implication that she should risk her life to just to prove your ridiculous conspiracy theory wrong.
Sources:
https://health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epidemiological-summary-covi…
https://ipac-canada.org/coronavirus-resources.php