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Canada's oil companies won't do what they promise — instead, they bide their time, awaiting Poilievre

Oilsands companies are making money hand over fist; now is the time to invest in carbon capture, writes Max Fawcett. File photo by Andrew S. Wright

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If money talks, then Canada’s oil and gas companies ought to have a lot to say right now. While commodity prices have softened recently, they’re still on track to post one of their most profitable years ever — one that will see record-high production on record-high revenue. But while they’ve said a lot about returning money to shareholders and paying down debt, they’ve been conspicuously quiet about anything to do with climate change. That’s because, as a new report from the Pembina Institute shows, they’ve barely spent any money on it.

Take Canada’s biggest oilsands companies, which formed the Pathways Alliance more than a year ago and very loudly proclaimed their shared commitment to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 and eliminating 22 megatonnes of greenhouse gases by the end of this decade. Getting anywhere close to that target will require the construction of multiple carbon capture and storage projects, but not a single one of those companies has made a final investment decision yet. Instead, they’ve funnelled their growing cash flows to investors, with more than $10 billion going towards share buybacks and dividends in the second quarter of 2022 alone — a 400 per cent increase on what they spent in the second quarter of 2019.

Emissions reduction efforts, on the other hand, still amount to a rounding error for these companies. Canadian Natural Resources expects to give $14 billion back to its shareholders between 2021 and 2022, but it spent just $84 million on emissions reduction research and development efforts last year. That’s still better than MEG Energy, which indicated in a climate disclosure questionnaire that it invested $200,000 on emissions reduction initiatives in 2021 — a pittance given it bought back $139 million worth of its own shares between April and June of this year.

As federal Environment and Climate Change Minister Steven Guilbeault told The Canadian Press, "If (oil and gas companies) don't make those investments while they're making record-level profits, then when would it be a good time for them to make those investments? If not now, then I don't know when."

So, what’s the holdup? According to the companies and their spokespeople, it’s the government’s fault. "Expectations by the Pembina Institute that Pathways Alliance companies make final investment decisions on these multibillion-dollar projects before governments have finalized regulatory frameworks to support them are unrealistic," Pathways Alliance president Kendall Dilling told me in an emailed statement.

If money talks, then Canada’s oil and gas companies ought to have a lot to say right now, writes columnist @maxfawcett.

Those frameworks include the federal government’s proposed tax credit for carbon capture and storage projects, which was announced earlier this year and will be finalized in forthcoming legislation. While it would give companies a 60 per cent credit on costs related to direct air capture and 50 per cent on carbon capture and storage, the oil companies are clearly holding out for even better terms. “We also can’t ignore that decarbonization projects in Canada are competing for capital with similar projects in the United States, which now has a significantly more favourable investment climate thanks to the Inflation Reduction Act,” Dilling said.

But as the Pembina Institute’s report noted, this is a red herring — one designed to extract further concessions from a government that has already offered up more than enough of them. “U.S. incentives for CCUS have no bearing on the need for existing oilsands operations in Canada to decarbonize — given that oilsands operations in Canada cannot be transferred to the U.S. — and there is therefore no reasonable rationale for Canada to consider further subsidies for CCUS.”

Ironically, the biggest thing standing in the way of these major carbon capture and storage investments isn’t the Trudeau government but what Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has promised his government would do if elected. He has made it abundantly clear that one of his first orders of business as prime minister would be eliminating the carbon tax, and that would destroy the economics of any carbon capture project in Canada.

Just ask Michael Belenkie, the CEO of Entropy, a carbon capture company created by Advantage Energy. As he told the Globe and Mail, “It has the potential to be a bait-and-switch, where people throw billions of dollars into projects, and then after a regime change — there’s a new government in place or public opinion sways — the carbon tax goes away.”

Mark Cameron, vice-president of external relations for the Pathways Alliance, hinted at this risk in his own comments to the Globe and Mail. “There’s a very active intention to move forward with these projects, but that is not the same thing as being able to make funding commitments today, not knowing what the conditions are going to be three years from now when it’s actually time to start building,” he said.

Three years from now, of course, just happens to be when the next federal election is scheduled to take place. There are ways the federal government can mitigate this risk before then, including a so-called “contract for difference” that would pay project developers if the carbon tax was weakened or eliminated. The Trudeau government should move quickly on that front, if only to pour some political and economic concrete on its signature climate policy.

But it should also vocally call the bluff of oil and gas companies clamouring for more incentives and subsidies. If they continue to stall for time, the government has other options it can turn to: a windfall profit tax, for example, or a more aggressive timeline for its cap on oilsands emissions. It should also remind them that a Poilievre government, and its pledge to eliminate the carbon tax, would be even worse for the decarbonization push they’re supposedly committed to making. Either way, the time for talking is just about at an end.

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