On carbon tax, BC Greens stand alone

BC Green Party Leader Sonia Furstenau is doubling down on her commitment to the carbon tax before the Oct. 19 election. 

The party will clamp down on the oil and gas industry, close loopholes on pricing carbon pollution, and provide larger rebates to individuals and families, Furstenau announced Wednesday. 

Furstenau criticized Conservative Party of BC Leader John Rustad for denying the climate crisis is a problem and accused the BC NDP of tinkering with the carbon tax system it inherited to grant subsidies to the oil and gas industry. 

The party would continue with planned increases to the carbon price, raising it by $15 a year, up from the current $80 a tonne to $95 next year and $110 in 2026, Furstenau said. 

However, ensuring the fossil fuel industry pays a price for all emissions and eliminating loopholes like carbon offsets would generate at least an extra billion dollars that could be invested in higher checks to households and local climate action projects for communities, she said. 

“It's time for us to focus on real solutions, to join the rest of the world in moving to a decarbonized, post-fossil fuel economy, and it's time for us to put British Columbians first,” Furstenau said. 

The Greens are the last remaining provincial party committed to the climate measure along with the  Liberal government.

Despite the carbon tax being seen as a political albatross by the other parties, the Greens likely won’t alienate potential voters by standing firm on the policy, political pundits say. 

“The Greens redoubling their commitment to act aggressively to combat climate change and its effects becomes a clear way to differentiate the party from the other two options,” said Stewart Prest, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia. 

“Their goal isn't to knock off the other two parties and form a government; that’s not a plausible outcome for them,” Prest added. 

“But if they can demonstrate the relevance of the party and its ideas to the minority of voters who are interested in a third way in B.C. politics, then this is the way to do that.” 

The Greens have also committed to maintaining and expanding the safe supply of pharmaceutical alternatives as a solution to poisoned street drugs that have killed more than 15,000 people in the province since a public health emergency was declared in 2016. 

In contrast, NDP Leader David Eby has reversed his party’s stance on the carbon tax and tackling the toxic drug crisis by adopting the BC Conservatives’ stance of axing the consumer portion of the climate levy and rolling back drug decriminalization measures and safe supply while touting involuntary treatment for people struggling with mental health or drug use. 

However, standing behind the policies the NDP have back-tracked on doesn’t seem to be helping the Green Party gain traction with voters or hurt the incumbent party all that much, a new Angus Reid poll indicates. 

The NDP and BC Conservatives remain neck-and-neck with 45 per cent and 44 per cent of intended voters, respectively. The Greens, meanwhile, are experiencing a slow but steady drop in support as voters appear to be “picking a side” between the two parties likely to win power, poll results suggest. 

But the Green support isn’t only bleeding off toward the NDP; the BC Conservatives are actually benefiting more from the Greens’ decline than the NDP. Only half the voters that backed Greens last election plan to do so again, while 30 per cent plan to switch to the Conservatives and a further 22 per cent intend to vote NDP. 

There are some “affinities” between Green and Conservative supporters, Prest said. 

Both parties can lay some claim to being an anti-systemic party for voters dissatisfied with the status quo, he said. 

“The Green Party tends to be more focused on environmental issues, but we do see a subset of green voters expressing, say, skepticism around vaccines or mainstream medicine,” he said. 

Historical Covid 19 vaccine and public health mandates aren’t top of mind for most voters, “but for a loud subset of voters, it continues to be a really important issue,” he said. 

Support for the Green Party remains strongest on the coastal mainland and Vancouver Island regions sitting at 15 per cent. However, 46 per cent of intended voters on the Island are leaning NDP and 38 per cent intend to support the Conservatives. 

Twenty per cent of intended voters still remain undecided about which party to back at the ballot box. This has important implications for the NDP and Conservatives which are locked in a very tight race, particularly in the Lower Mainland, and in the specific Island or coastal ridings where Greens are competitive and could still pick up votes or spell trouble for NDP candidates by splitting the vote. 

The Greens' slipping support is mostly due to factors outside their control, Prest said, noting they are competing in a first-past-the-post system at a time when voters feel they are in a polarized high-stakes election and may feel pressure to vote strategically for one of the more dominant parties. 

“It’s a difficult election to be the third party when there are two very clear options that are in many ways quite distinct.” 

Rochelle Baker / Local Journalism Initiative / Canada's National Observer