Trump’s plan to block offshore wind may breathe new life into Canada’s industry

Donald Trump's pledge to halt the U.S. offshore wind industry “on Day 1” of his presidency has sent chills through the sector, threatening tens of billions of dollars in investments. 

But in Canada, where the country’s first auction next year will see companies bid on offshore wind project sites off the coast of Nova Scotia, Trump’s actions could tempt wind developers to look north. 

“When developers are making billion-dollar capital investments, they are very focused on political will and policy support. If the U.S. market slows, Canada would be viewed favourably, as comparatively less risky,” said John Dalton, president of Power Advisory, a Boston-based power sector consultancy.

“Donald Trump’s election certainly changes the risk profile for U.S. offshore wind, creating much more uncertainty for developers and potentially stymying the supply chain,” he said, speaking to Canada’s National Observer ahead of a major industry conference that started yesterday in Halifax. 

Misinformation-fueled rants

Trump's vitriol toward offshore wind is legendary in the industry. 

From a failed attempt to stop construction of a project in the U.K. North Sea that could be seen from his luxury golf course near Aberdeen, Scotland, to regular misinformation-fueled rants about turbines causing cancer or wind power being the “most expensive hoax in the world,” Trump has opposed the sector at every opportunity.

Campaigning in May, he said of U.S. wind projects: “We are going to make sure that that ends on Day 1. I’m going to write it out in an executive order. It’s going to end on Day 1.”

Trump added that sea-based wind turbines “ruin the environment, they kill the birds, they kill the whales.”

There is currently more than 55,000 megawatts of offshore wind — enough to power 22 million homes — in the pipeline to be developed off U.S. coastlines, backed by some US$65 million in capital, according to American Clean Power, an industry association.

If Trump goes through with the moratorium, it could mean an updraft for wind projects in Atlantic Canada, which despite having among the world’s longest and windiest coastlines, does not yet have a single turbine turning in its waters.

For years there have been great ambitions to harness the vast energy resource streaming over Atlantic Canada. 

Winds whip along the coastlines of the Maritime provinces at speeds similar to those off Northern Europe — around 40 km/h, where clean wind power has been generated commercially for over 30 years and now employs over 300,000 people.

There is also the hope of economic development for a historically depressed region. The Atlantic Economic Council said this year offshore wind could become a $7-billion market by 2030, creating an initial 5,000 jobs amid other benefits for regional economies.

Canada's floating wind flagship

Gerald Sheehan, development manager at Nova East, a 400-megawatt floating wind project off Nova Scotia that recently struck a breakthrough deal with the Mi’kmaw First Nation, said a U.S. offshore wind ban could lure investment north.

“It could open up the possibility of capital coming to Canada if there were less offshore wind projects in the U.S.,” he said. 

Atlantic Canada’s sparse population has long worked against the adoption of utility-scale offshore wind power in the region. The Maritimes is home to less than seven per cent of Canada’s population and has lower industrial and residential demand for power than most other provinces. 

But an emerging global green hydrogen market and potential routes-to-market in power-hungry U.S. cities such as New York, Philadelphia and Boston have changed the fortunes of Canadian wind power. 

Another positive for the industry is Bill C-49, which cemented the regulatory framework needed to build offshore wind farms in Canadian waters when it was signed into law last month, clearing the way for Nova Scotia’s flagship five-gigawatt auction in 2025. 

While Trump’s fixation on fossil fuels could be a boon for Canada’s offshore wind sector, Ottawa will need to create attractive conditions for investment, said Bruce Fraser, senior consultant at Green Cat Renewables, a Calgary-based energy engineering firm.

Stable investment environment "key"

“The key will be to create a stable, attractive environment for offshore wind development that can buffer changes in the international political landscape,” he said, in a message. 

“This would involve bolstering the supply chain, investing in necessary infrastructure, and continuing to refine supportive policies and regulations for our industry,” Fraser added.

Novaporte, a port operator in Sydney, Nova Scotia, is building a major offshore wind marshaling hub — where turbine parts are stored and assembled before transport to offshore projects sites — with Blue Water Shipping and the Membertou First Nation. 

Albert Barbusci, Novaporte's CEO, said whether the near-term impact of the Trump presidency was positive or negative on Canada’s offshore wind market, he did not expect long-term plans for the Atlantic wind sector would be adversely affected.

“While U.S. offshore wind development may face some delays, Canada is fully prepared to proceed with its plans to expand energy production, including offshore wind,” Barbusci said, adding he expected investments to continue at a steady pace.

“We should be viewing this opportunity in terms of decades, not election cycles,” he said.

Global offshore wind investment reached a record $76.7 billion, up 79 per cent, last year, with China continuing to be the largest offshore wind market, followed by the UK and the U.S., according to BloombergNEF, a research firm. How much of this capital ends up being spent on Atlantic projects on either side of the U.S.-Canada maritime border could be determined in the early days of Trump’s second term.

The Global Wind Energy Council, an industry body, forecasts that the coming decade will see 410 gigawatts of new offshore wind capacity installed around the world on top of the 75 gigawatts currently in operation.